Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

My baseline view is that a meeting is uncommon but not absurdly unlikely over the next few months. The war remains the dominant obstacle: both leaders have strong political and security reasons to avoid a direct encounter unless there is already a substantial diplomatic breakthrough, and any such meeting would likely require heavy backchannel preparation and credible guarantees. With only a few months left until the cutoff, the calendar itself is a major constraint, because even if negotiations accelerate, arranging venue, security, agenda, and political cover for both sides is hard and slow.

That said, the event wording only requires that they speak or meet, not that they sign a final peace deal. In past conflicts, direct leader-to-leader contact often happens late in negotiations, sometimes after weeks of intermediated talks when a summit becomes useful as a signaling device. If the battlefield or diplomatic situation shifts sharply, or if external powers push for a headline-grabbing summit, the probability can rise quickly from a low base. Because the market is already pricing this at just under 10%, it is assuming the status quo persists almost unchanged; that seems somewhat aggressive given how quickly wartime diplomacy can change.

I think the market is slightly too bearish, but not dramatically so. The most realistic path to Yes is not ordinary diplomacy; it is an exceptional late-cycle event such as a ceasefire initiative, prisoner exchange escalation, or a major pressure campaign from third parties that makes a face-to-face meeting politically useful. Absent that kind of catalyst, No remains the most likely outcome, but I would still assign a small premium above the market because the event definition is broad enough that even a brief encounter or formal bilateral conversation would count.