Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The most relevant evidence points toward Anthropic having the cleaner near-term path to a public listing, while OpenAI’s IPO timing seems more conditional. OpenAI has taken an important step with a confidential S-1 filing, but that only signals preparation, not urgency, and reporting around a 2027 or later public debut suggests management may prefer to wait for a larger valuation and better market conditions. By contrast, Anthropic’s recent reporting has repeatedly framed it as the company more likely to move first, even if its own timeline has slipped somewhat.

The practical constraint is that both companies are still in a highly optional phase, where board decisions, market windows, and valuation targets can easily reshuffle the order. OpenAI may be the larger brand and could theoretically accelerate if growth and investor appetite are exceptional, but that same scale also raises the probability of delay because the company may want to optimize for a very high IPO price. Anthropic appears to have fewer reasons to wait as long, and recent reports suggesting roadshow preparation and a nearer-term window support the idea that it remains ahead in the queue.

At the current price, the market looks heavily skewed toward OpenAI listing first, and I think that is too aggressive. A 95% implied probability leaves almost no room for the substantial uncertainty still present in two confidential, unpriced, and potentially flexible processes. Given the latest reporting, the more balanced read is that Anthropic is modestly favored to be first, so the market appears to be overstating OpenAI’s lead by a wide margin.