Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The core obstacle is structural: impeachment is possible with a simple House majority, but removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote, which is historically rare and politically difficult even in highly charged conditions. Trump has already demonstrated unusual resilience to scandal and partisan pressure, and absent a major, sustained constitutional crisis, the Senate threshold remains the main bottleneck. A serious legal or investigative development could create impeachment momentum, but removal is a much higher bar than impeachment alone, so the event should be priced as an extreme-tail outcome rather than a plausible central case.

There are still meaningful paths to Yes. If a major national security, corruption, or criminal scandal emerges with broad bipartisan outrage, House impeachment could happen quickly, and a Senate conviction becomes conceivable if the evidence is overwhelming and the political environment shifts sharply. Trump’s political style also increases tail risk because he tends to generate conflicts that can escalate into formal proceedings. Even so, conviction would require substantial Republican defection, which is rare unless public opinion and elite consensus move dramatically against him.

Compared with the current 16% market price, the market looks too high. A price in the mid-teens implies a relatively material chance of both impeachment and the far harder step of removal, but historical precedent and current institutional incentives suggest that combination is still unlikely. The market may be overweighing headline risk and Trump-specific volatility while underweighting the Senate supermajority requirement, making the No side more attractive than the quote suggests.