Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
Scottie Scheffler is good enough to make this plausible, but the bar is still high because he must capture both remaining majors before 2028. I make it meaningfully above the market, at 22%, because his win equity in any major is elite and he has multiple chances left.
Analysis
Scheffler is one of the very few players in the world who can reasonably be treated as a multiple-major favorite in any given season. At this point in his career he has already shown that he can convert major opportunities, and by the end of 2027 he will still have four more chances at the two events he needs most for the career grand slam, with no obvious age or health reason to expect a sharp decline. The key question is not whether he is good enough, but whether he can stack two specific major wins in a relatively short window, which is difficult even for historically great players.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Scheffler has already proven he can win majors, so the remaining task is a repeatable extension of an existing record rather than a leap into new territory.
- Arguments for Yes: With four remaining major starts in the relevant events before the deadline, even modest win probabilities accumulate into a meaningful chance.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: He must win two distinct majors, not just one, and the career grand slam is rare for a reason.
- Arguments against Yes: The U.S. Open and Open Championship are especially dependent on conditions and tournament variance, which can knock out even the best player.
Key drivers
- Scheffler’s current level is high enough that he is a real contender in virtually every major he enters.
- He has multiple remaining opportunities in the two majors he still needs, which materially boosts cumulative odds.
Risk factors
- Major championships are volatile enough that even elite players frequently go two more seasons without a win in a specific event.
- Any injury, slump, or emergence of a rival with a stronger course fit could sharply reduce his chances.
Scenarios
Best case
Scheffler wins one of the two missing majors in 2026 and the other in 2027, completing the career grand slam comfortably before the deadline.
Most likely
Scheffler adds at least one of the missing majors but falls short of getting both before 2028, which keeps the grand slam incomplete.
Worst case
He remains elite but fails to capture either the U.S. Open or the Open Championship before 2028, leaving the grand slam incomplete.
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