Texas Senate winner?
Slight lean to Yes: the freshest polls still give James Talarico a modest lead over Ken Paxton. The market already prices that edge heavily, so the evidence only nudges Yes slightly higher.
Analysis
Nov. 2, 2026 polls still show James Talarico ahead, including Siena at 50% to 43% and AtlasIntel at 51.3% to 45.4%. That supports Yes, though the race remains close enough that turnout and county-level swings matter tomorrow.
The market already reflects a strong Talarico chance, so the poll edge only justifies a small upward nudge. Paxton still has a plausible path if Republican turnout exceeds polling expectations in key suburbs and exurban counties.
Arguments
For
- Latest public polling favors Talarico in multiple surveys.
- Paxton faces baggage that could soften Republican support.
Against
- Texas remains a difficult state for Democrats statewide.
- A small polling miss could erase Talarico's lead.
Key drivers
- Fresh polls show Talarico leading in the final stretch.
- Texas historical voting patterns keep Paxton very viable.
Risk factors
- Polling error could still miss by several points.
- Turnout differences in North Texas and South Texas may dominate.
Scenarios
Best case
If turnout mirrors the strongest polls tomorrow, Yes rises to about 80%.
Most likely
Most likely Talarico wins narrowly and Yes ends around 74%.
Worst case
If Republican turnout overperforms on Nov. 3, Yes falls to about 60%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 74% | 72% |
| Ken Paxton | 26% | 29% |
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