Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The core issue is not whether the House could impeach Trump, but whether a Senate supermajority would ever vote to remove him. In modern U.S. politics, impeachment has become a partisan weapon, while removal still requires a level of cross-party defection that has proven extraordinarily rare. Even if serious misconduct emerges, the most common outcome is political damage, investigations, resignations of aides, or electoral backlash rather than removal from office itself. That makes the combined event of impeachment and removal a much harder bar than the headline may imply.

Historical precedent strongly argues against a high probability. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached but not removed, and Donald Trump himself was impeached twice without removal in his prior term. That history matters because it shows how much evidence and bipartisan consensus would be required for the Senate to cross the threshold. In a polarized environment, a president typically retains a durable base of support unless there is a uniquely catalytic event, such as an unmistakable criminal crisis, incapacitation, or a broad collapse in elite Republican support.

The market price of 16% looks rich relative to the structural difficulty of the outcome. A 16% implied probability suggests investors are assigning meaningful odds to both a major scandal and an exceptional Republican break with Trump, which may be too aggressive absent specific new facts. I would expect some chance of impeachment proceedings over the next several years, but removal remains a tail event; the market may be overestimating how often political outrage translates into the two-step sequence required for a Yes outcome.