Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think the Yes side is materially overvalued if Yes means OpenAI goes public before Anthropic. The public reporting currently points more strongly to Anthropic moving first, with OpenAI signaling a later 2027 timeframe.
Analysis
The strongest available signal is that OpenAI itself has been unusually explicit about not rushing to market, with Sam Altman publicly saying a 2026 IPO would be ill-advised and management reportedly pointing to 2027 as the more plausible window. While OpenAI has filed confidentially, that only shows it is preparing optionality, not that it will actually beat Anthropic to a listing. By contrast, the reporting around Anthropic is more consistent with an earlier public-market timeline, including suggestions that it could move in 2026 and may have filed first, which is directionally supportive of Anthropic being first to IPO.
The main reason to keep some probability on Yes is that IPO timing is inherently noisy and can change quickly with market conditions, regulatory issues, or strategic financing needs. OpenAI has much greater scale and visibility, and a confidential S-1 means it can act quickly if it chooses, so a faster-than-expected process is not impossible. Still, the balance of public evidence favors Anthropic’s process being ahead, and OpenAI’s own statements make it harder to justify a high probability that it will outrun Anthropic.
Against the current market price of 0.93, this looks sharply mispriced if the contract is indeed asking whether OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic. A 93% implied probability would require OpenAI’s earlier public filing and later timing signals to be overwhelmingly outweighed by a much stronger likelihood of Anthropic delaying or backing out, but the available reporting does not support that level of confidence. The market appears to be over-weighting OpenAI’s size and prominence while under-weighting the explicit timing guidance and the reports suggesting Anthropic has the earlier window.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already filed confidentially and has the scale and investor demand to move quickly if it decides to accelerate.
- Anthropic’s reported window is not firm, so any delay there would make OpenAI more likely to go first.
Against
- OpenAI leadership has explicitly indicated that 2026 is too early and 2027 is the more realistic target.
- Multiple reports point to Anthropic having the earlier filing and a more immediate listing window.
Key drivers
- OpenAI has publicly signaled a later IPO timing, with 2027 sounding like the management baseline.
- Anthropic has the more aggressive reported timeline and may already be closer to execution.
Risk factors
- Anthropic’s IPO timeline is still largely based on reporting rather than confirmed company guidance.
- Either company could delay for market conditions, making the order of listings less certain than the headlines suggest.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates its process, benefits from stronger capital-markets conditions, and completes an IPO before Anthropic can launch its own offering.
Most likely
Anthropic remains the earlier mover based on current reporting, while OpenAI stays on a more deliberate timeline and IPOs later.
Worst case
Anthropic follows through on the reported 2026 timeline while OpenAI waits until 2027 or later, making Anthropic clearly first.
More from this day
- PoliticsKalshi1y
Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
AI33%MKT89%Edge-56HypedThe evidence favors New Hampshire not being the first Democratic contest in 2028. Recent calendar reporting points to South Carolina first, with New Hampshire early but not earliest.
- pop culturePolymarketTomorrow
"Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office
AI82%MKT27%Edge+55Hidden GemResident Evil is much more likely than not to open below 50 million domestically. The franchise has strong recognition, but this threshold is high enough that only a breakout, four-quadrant launch would clear it.
- PoliticsKalshi2y
Who will Trump pardon?
AI2%MKT54%Edge-52HypedBarron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before January 2029 looks extremely unlikely because there is no evidence he faces any federal charge or pending clemency matter. I would put the chance in the low single digits, far below the current 50% market price.