Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham is a credible Supreme Court contender, but the absence of any current vacancy or nomination makes the overall chance of him being the next Justice meaningfully lower than the market implies. I estimate about a 13% yes probability, with Oldham still the leading name among the listed contenders but not by enough to justify a 25% price.
Analysis
Oldham has the profile of a serious Supreme Court prospect: he is a Fifth Circuit judge, a former Alito clerk, and fits the standard mold of a conservative appellate jurist who could be elevated if a Republican president gets an opening. That keeps him squarely in the conversation, especially if the next vacancy arises during a Trump administration or a similarly aligned White House. Among the named contenders, his résumé is probably the cleanest fit for a traditional judicial selection process, which is why he deserves to be near the top of the board.
The main constraint is that this market is not asking whether Oldham is a plausible future nominee; it is asking whether he will be the next Justice. With no current vacancy on the Court, the event depends first on an unplanned opening and then on Oldham being selected over a deep bench of alternatives. That creates a compounding problem: even a well-positioned candidate can only win if the vacancy exists, the timing works, and the White House prefers him over other judges or political figures.
Relative to the other contenders, Oldham should probably be favored within this specific group, but not by a margin that justifies a 25% outright probability in the absence of vacancy signals. James Ho is also a strong conservative legal figure, while Rao, Thapar, and Park remain credible but somewhat less prominent or less likely depending on the president’s stylistic and ideological preferences. The market appears to be assigning too much weight to Oldham’s pipeline status and not enough to the much larger hurdle that no Supreme Court seat is currently open, which keeps the true yes probability in the low teens rather than the mid-20s.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Oldham is a highly credible conservative appellate judge with the kind of credentials that often lead to Supreme Court consideration.
- Arguments for Yes: If a vacancy opens during a Republican administration, his profile may be strong enough to place him near the top of the shortlist.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: There is currently no Supreme Court vacancy, so the event requires a future opening before Oldham can be chosen at all.
- Arguments against Yes: Even if a seat opens, Oldham faces competition from several other well-known conservative jurists and potentially non-judicial alternatives.
Key drivers
- No current vacancy means the event depends on an additional, uncertain triggering event before Oldham can even be considered.
- Oldham’s Supreme Court clerkship and Fifth Circuit position make him one of the most institutionally plausible conservative nominees if an opening appears.
Risk factors
- A vacancy could emerge and the administration could prefer another conservative judge with a stronger political network or broader Senate appeal.
- Unexpected retirements, health events, or a shift in White House selection strategy could favor a contender outside this five-person set.
Scenarios
Best case
A Supreme Court vacancy arises under a favorable administration, and Oldham is chosen quickly because his ideological record, appellate experience, and clerkship pedigree make him the cleanest confirmable option.
Most likely
Oldham remains a leading conservative Supreme Court contender in public discussion, but the Court either does not open a seat in time or another candidate is selected instead.
Worst case
No vacancy appears before January 2029, or a vacancy does appear but the White House picks a different nominee, leaving Oldham as a prominent but unsuccessful prospect.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 28% | 25% |
| James Ho | 24% | 16% |
| Michael Park | 18% | 9% |
| Neomi Rao | 15% | 7% |
| Amul Thapar | 15% | 7% |
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