Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The available evidence points strongly toward continuity rather than departure. Alito remains active on the Court, is still participating in major emergency matters, and the recent reporting you provided contains no retirement language, no health concern, and no indication of an imminent exit. At age 76, resignation is not impossible, but Supreme Court justices often stay in place well into their late 70s or 80s unless they have a strong personal, health, or strategic reason to leave. With only a little over two years remaining in Trump’s term, the natural default is that he simply keeps serving through the end of the period in question.

The main argument for a resignation is structural rather than news-driven: Alito is one of the older justices, and a resignation could be attractive if he wanted to control the timing of succession or avoid leaving office under a future administration. But that logic cuts both ways, because the same incentives also favor staying put until a better moment or until the term ends. The fact that he is still publicly aligned with Trump and still issuing dissents suggests engagement and continued institutional role, not withdrawal. In other words, the current facts support a low-to-moderate baseline probability, not a coin flip.

The market price implies a much more optimistic yes outcome than the evidence supports. A 47% yes price would make sense if there were credible retirement rumors, health concerns, or repeated signs that Alito was preparing an exit, but none are present. This looks mispriced to the upside on yes, likely because traders are over-weighting age and political alignment as if they were imminent retirement signals. The more defensible estimate is that a resignation before January 2029 is possible but clearly the minority outcome.