Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?

Scottie Scheffler has already established the key ingredients you want in a career-grand-slam bettor: elite major form, sustained dominance across seasons, and multiple remaining attempts before the deadline. The missing piece is specifically the U.S. Open, which is a difficult tournament to win but not an exotic long shot for a player who is already one of the most reliable contenders in golf. With the market running through the end of 2027, he effectively has several U.S. Open opportunities and a broader runway than a typical short-dated event would allow. That makes the event far more live than a single-major or one-season market might imply.

The main reason to be more bullish than the market is simple: Scheffler does not need to become a different player, he just needs to convert one of a handful of high-probability opportunities. His current profile is closer to an annual favorite or co-favorite than a true underdog, and career grand slams often come down to a mix of persistence, health, and variance rather than a dramatic shift in ability. He also appears to be in the part of his career where the window is open now, not later, which matters because the market horizon still gives him multiple bites at the apple.

Against that, the U.S. Open is the hardest major for many great players because it can amplify driving accuracy, scrambling, and a small set of week-specific conditions, while a few hot putters or elite course fits can overwhelm even the best overall player. Competition is also deepening, so the field may not be as favorable in 2027 as it was earlier in his peak. Even so, those objections reduce the probability from something like a coin flip, not down to the single digits. The current market price near 7% looks too pessimistic for a player of Scheffler’s caliber with multiple remaining major starts, so I think the market is materially underpricing the Yes outcome.