Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The strongest argument for a Yes outcome is that impeachment has become a real, recurring option rather than a purely hypothetical one. Trump has already been impeached twice, House Democratic leadership is explicitly refusing to rule it out, and at least one member is actively trying to force a floor vote. If Democrats capture the House in 2026, the incentive to use impeachment as both accountability and mobilization could become substantial, especially if new scandals or court setbacks give them a clear political rationale.

Even so, the key limiting factor is that impeachment requires a very specific sequence of events, not just general hostility toward Trump. A Democratic House is not guaranteed, and reporting suggests many Democrats are still prioritizing investigations and litigation over a fast impeachment push. That makes the most likely path one where impeachment remains a live threat and talking point, but does not necessarily translate into a majority vote. The Senate hurdle does not matter for this market directly, but it still affects House incentives because members know removal is unlikely and may hesitate to spend political capital on a largely symbolic step.

Compared with the current market price of 67%, I think the market is too optimistic on the Yes side. It appears to be pricing impeachment as the default response to a Democratic House or as an almost inevitable consequence of ongoing tensions, when in reality it still requires control of the chamber, leadership willingness, and enough internal cohesion to proceed. A price in the 60s would make more sense if there were stronger evidence of imminent House takeover plus clear leadership commitment to impeachment, but the current reporting points more toward contingency than certainty.