Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The core issue is not whether there will be enough partisan anger to talk about impeachment, but whether the House control and political incentives line up in a way that makes an actual vote likely before January 2029. The recent reporting is consistent with impeachment staying a live threat, especially if Democrats capture the House in 2026, but it also makes clear that there is no active process underway and no committed leadership plan. That matters because impeachment requires an organized House majority, and many incoming majorities prefer to spend political capital on oversight, investigations, and legislation rather than an impeachment fight unless there is a truly dominant scandal.

Trump’s history cuts both ways. He has already been impeached twice, so the precedent for congressional action exists and Democratic willingness is not hypothetical. At the same time, prior impeachments did not lead to removal and did not permanently normalize impeachment as a routine response; each new attempt still needs a triggering event that is both serious and politically salient enough to hold together a majority. The most plausible path to Yes is a Democratic House in 2027 combined with a fresh, high-salience allegation that leadership believes has broad public resonance.

Against that, the current setup still leaves several hurdles. Democrats may win the House in 2026, but that is far from assured, and even if they do, leadership could choose not to prioritize impeachment unless Trump’s conduct supplies an unusually strong case. Senate removal is not required for this market, but the near-certainty of Senate failure also reduces the practical appeal of impeachment as a governing strategy. On balance, I think the market is too optimistic on Yes; 66% implies impeachment is more likely than not by a wide margin, whereas the evidence supports a substantial but far from dominant chance, more in the high-40s than the mid-60s.