Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The strongest signal in the current news flow is timing asymmetry. OpenAI has taken the politically useful step of saying it will not go public in 2026, but that still leaves an open-ended 2027 or later path, and a confidential filing does not mean an IPO is imminent. Anthropic, by contrast, is being described as potentially starting marketing in mid-October and even completing the process before the November midterms, which is much closer to an actual transaction timetable. On the facts provided, Anthropic simply looks farther along in the go-public sequence and therefore more likely to beat OpenAI to the tape if both continue on their reported trajectories.

There is still a meaningful counterargument for OpenAI first: it is the larger, more visible company, and if it changes its posture quickly after 2026 it could still move faster than expected. OpenAI also has a confidential S-1 already on file, which is a real procedural step and suggests internal readiness. But the latest public messaging cuts against urgency, and IPO timing for a company of OpenAI’s scale is likely to remain sensitive to governance, AI safety optics, and investor appetite, all of which can delay a listing even after filing.

Against that backdrop, the current market price of 0.93 for Yes looks far too high. That price implies OpenAI-first is nearly a certainty, yet the reported evidence points the other way: Anthropic has the nearer-term window and OpenAI has explicitly stepped back from 2026. I think the market is overweighting OpenAI’s brand and filing status while underweighting how close Anthropic appears to be to actually executing an IPO.