Will Trump expand the H-1B program?

On the merits, an H-1B expansion under Trump is not the base case, but it is far from impossible. Trump has consistently campaigned on immigration restriction, and his coalition includes voters and advisors who strongly oppose anything that can be framed as more foreign labor. That said, H-1B is one of the few immigration categories with a durable business constituency, especially from major employers, the tech sector, and parts of the broader services economy. If unemployment stays manageable and economic growth becomes a priority, the administration could choose narrower forms of expansion such as raising the cap, exempting more workers, or streamlining approvals rather than embracing broad immigration liberalization.

The biggest obstacle is political, not administrative. An explicit expansion would likely trigger backlash from restrictionist allies and be harder to justify than a reform framed as anti-fraud, higher-wage, or merit-based cleanup. Trump’s instinct is usually to tighten, not loosen, and he has historically been comfortable using immigration as a signaling issue. For that reason, the median outcome is still no expansion, and there is a real chance the term ends with only symbolic or offsetting changes that do not qualify as a true increase in H-1B access.

Compared with the current market price of 15%, I think the market is somewhat too bearish on Yes. A 15% price implies expansion is close to a tail event, but the combination of business lobbying, labor shortages in specific sectors, and the possibility of transactional deal-making gives Yes a non-trivial path. The market is probably overweighting Trump’s rhetorical hostility and underweighting the flexibility he has shown when policy can be sold as pro-growth or pro-American competitiveness.