Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID has a real chance of being effectively dismantled or folded into another entity during Trump’s term, but formal elimination still faces major legal and congressional hurdles. I put the chance higher than the market, but not above a coin flip.
Analysis
USAID is a politically exposed target because it is closely associated with foreign aid, which Trump and many Republicans have repeatedly criticized as wasteful or misaligned with America First priorities. If Trump retains strong control over the executive branch and Republican leaders stay aligned, the administration could shrink the agency dramatically through staffing cuts, budget reductions, reorganization, and transferring functions elsewhere, which would make an elimination outcome more plausible than for most cabinet-adjacent agencies. The main reason for caution is that true elimination is structurally difficult: Congress typically controls agency authorizations and appropriations, and there are likely to be institutional and legal challenges from Democrats, aid contractors, NGOs, and some national security hawks who value USAID as a tool of soft power.
The market’s 23% yes price looks somewhat low if the question is interpreted broadly to include de facto elimination through merger, defunding, or statutory conversion. A Trump administration with unified Republican control could move aggressively enough to make USAID cease operating as an independent agency even if the formal statutory name lingers. That said, if the market is treating “eliminated” strictly as outright legal abolition, then skepticism is justified because getting Congress to repeal or merge USAID is a much harder lift than simply gutting it administratively.
My estimate is above the market because the political incentives favor visible action against USAID, and the executive branch has several levers to reduce or absorb it without needing perfect legislative conditions. Still, the market is not wildly wrong: the obstacle is not whether Trump wants to do it, but whether the necessary coalition and legal path exist before January 2029.
Arguments
For
- Trump has a strong ideological and political motive to shrink or eliminate USAID.
- Executive action plus budget pressure could effectively destroy the agency’s independent role even without a clean repeal.
Against
- True elimination usually needs Congress, and that makes the outcome much harder than a typical executive reorganization.
- USAID has bipartisan defenders who may argue it is a cheap tool of influence and humanitarian policy.
Key drivers
- Trump and his allies have strong anti-foreign-aid incentives to target USAID.
- Formal elimination likely requires congressional action or a durable statutory workaround.
- The agency can be effectively gutted or merged even if total legal abolition is hard.
- Legal and institutional resistance from Congress, courts, and foreign policy stakeholders could block the full outcome.
Risk factors
- The question may require strict formal abolition rather than functional dismantling.
- A divided government or internal Republican splits would sharply reduce the odds.
- Courts could slow or reverse aggressive restructuring efforts.
- National security arguments for keeping USAID may persuade enough lawmakers to preserve it.
Scenarios
Best case
Trump secures enough political support to merge USAID into the State Department or otherwise strip it of independent status, satisfying the market’s elimination condition.
Most likely
USAID is severely reduced, reorganized, or partially absorbed, but the legal and political barriers to outright abolition prevent a clean elimination before Trump’s term ends.
Worst case
Congress and the courts preserve USAID, and Trump’s efforts only produce temporary cuts or symbolic restructuring without formal elimination.
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