Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito is 76 as of today, which puts him squarely in the age range where voluntary retirement becomes plausible, especially on a Court where justices often think strategically about timing. Because Trump is in office and the end of the term is still more than two years away, there is a real opportunity for Alito to choose the politically favorable moment to leave and lock in a replacement. That said, nothing in the available context suggests imminent departure, and the Court’s modern norm is that justices often stay well past conventional retirement age unless health, family, or other personal considerations push them out.

The case for a resignation is strengthened by ideology and timing. Alito is one of the most conservative members of the Court, and if he wants to preserve his legacy or avoid the risk of an unfavorable future administration, this is a rational window to exit. But the decision is not automatic: leaving now means giving up the influence and status of an active justice, and many justices in his position prefer to keep serving as long as they can. Absent news of health issues or a public signal that he is preparing to step down, the base rate for an actual resignation over a roughly two-year horizon is still well below certainty.

The market’s 64% Yes price looks somewhat aggressive to me. It appears to assume that age plus Republican control make retirement more likely than they usually are in practice. I think the market may be overweighting strategic retirement incentives and underweighting just how durable Supreme Court tenure tends to be. My estimate is lower because the most likely outcome is that Alito simply stays on the Court through most or all of Trump’s term unless a specific catalyst emerges.