Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic now looks better positioned to list first, with OpenAI’s timeline slipping toward 2027 and multiple reports pointing to Anthropic as the earlier mover. I assign only a modest chance that OpenAI is the first of the two to IPO.
Analysis
The latest reporting tilts meaningfully toward Anthropic being first to the public markets. OpenAI has taken a real procedural step by filing confidentially, but that is only the start of the process and does not lock in an offering date. The more important signal is timing: reported internal guidance moved OpenAI’s expected public debut out to 2027, which materially reduces the odds that it beats a faster-moving competitor to market.
Anthropic, by contrast, appears to have a nearer-term IPO track in recent coverage, with reports of marketing preparations and possible listing activity in the near term. In a race like this, the company that is actively readying roadshow materials and lining up bankers usually has the advantage, especially if the other company is still managing internal review and broader strategic considerations around valuation, governance, and business maturity. That makes Anthropic the more plausible first mover unless its own plans slip.
Against the current market price, the event looks heavily skewed toward OpenAI-first despite the news flow implying the opposite. A 93% price for OpenAI first seems hard to justify if the most recent credible information has Anthropic ahead on timing and OpenAI pushed back into 2027. The market may be overweighting OpenAI’s scale, brand, and the fact that it has already filed confidentially, but those factors matter less than actual readiness and management willingness to go public. On balance, I think the market is mispriced and is underestimating the probability that Anthropic beats OpenAI to an IPO.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already filed confidentially, which means it is in the formal IPO pipeline.
- OpenAI’s scale and brand could let it move quickly if it decides to pull forward timing.
Against
- Reported internal guidance now points to a 2027 public debut, which is later than Anthropic’s near-term window.
- Recent coverage repeatedly frames Anthropic as the likelier first IPO, suggesting OpenAI is not the front-runner.
Key drivers
- OpenAI’s reported timeline has slipped toward 2027, which weakens its first-mover position.
- Anthropic appears to be further along in near-term IPO preparation and marketing.
Risk factors
- OpenAI could accelerate its process if performance improves or if it chooses to exploit a favorable market window.
- Anthropic’s reported timing could slip, especially if macro conditions or internal readiness worsen.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI reverses its 2027 guidance, accelerates its filing and roadshow, and seizes a favorable market window before Anthropic can list.
Most likely
Anthropic moves ahead with a nearer-term IPO process and lists before OpenAI, which remains constrained by internal timing and strategic caution.
Worst case
Anthropic completes its IPO preparations and lists first while OpenAI stays on a 2027-or-later track.
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