How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I think the president is more likely than not to confirm zero or one Supreme Court justice in this term, with two confirmations possible but not the most likely path. My independent estimate for exactly two confirmations is 28%, below the market’s 43% yes price.
Analysis
The key fact is that there is no known Supreme Court vacancy today, and lifetime tenure means the path to two confirmations requires at least two openings before January 2029 plus successful Senate action. That is a meaningful bar even in a politically active administration, because the Court usually turns over slowly and the timing of vacancies is highly uncertain. The recent confirmation activity cited in the context is real, but it is concentrated in lower federal courts and does not directly translate into Supreme Court turnover.
Historically, two appointments in a single presidential term are possible but far from standard. They tend to occur when age and health create a cluster of vacancies or when a president is unusually lucky on timing, not because the administration has a strong nomination pipeline. Since the current Court is intact, the distribution should still be centered on zero or one rather than two, with the latter depending on an unusually favorable sequence of retirements, deaths, or unexpected departures.
Compared with the market, the 43% yes price looks high to me. I think the market is overweighting the general pace of judicial confirmations and underweighting the base rate for Supreme Court turnover; a 32% or so chance of exactly one and a mid-30s chance of zero seems more consistent with the structural reality. Two confirmations should remain a live possibility, but not the modal outcome, and the tail for three or more remains small unless there is a rare burst of vacancies.
Arguments
For
- If one justice leaves early in the term, pressure or opportunity may build for a second vacancy before the term ends.
- A cooperative Senate would make it easier for the president to move quickly on any openings that do occur.
Against
- No existing vacancy means the event depends on rare and unpredictable future turnover at the Supreme Court.
- Most presidencies do not secure exactly two Supreme Court confirmations, so the baseline probability is lower than a 43% yes price suggests.
Key drivers
- There is no current Supreme Court vacancy, so two confirmations require multiple future openings rather than just Senate approval of existing nominees.
- The remaining term still spans several years, leaving time for unexpected turnover, but the base rate for two Supreme Court openings in one presidency is still limited.
Risk factors
- A clustered retirement or death event could quickly make two confirmations plausible, especially if the Senate remains aligned with the president.
- The market may be reacting to broader judicial-confirmation momentum and extrapolating it too aggressively to the Supreme Court.
Scenarios
Best case
At least two justices leave the Court during the term, and the president confirms both nominees with a friendly Senate, making the yes outcome a clean win.
Most likely
The Court experiences either no vacancy or only one vacancy before January 2029, leaving the final count at zero or one rather than two.
Worst case
No justice leaves, or only one seat opens and is filled once, so the answer is no on exactly two confirmations.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 28% | 43% |
| 0 | 38% | 32% |
| 1 | 30% | 32% |
| 3 | 4% | 3% |
| 4 | 0% | 1% |
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