Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

The core issue is what “take control” means in practice. If the market settles for a narrow interpretation such as a long-term base expansion, special security zone, or some form of U.S. administrative control negotiated with Denmark and Greenland, the odds are not literally zero. But if the question implies the United States actually acquires sovereignty over any part of Greenland, that would require an extraordinary political agreement among Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and the United States, plus likely broad public support in Greenland and Denmark. That is a very high bar, and there is no structural momentum pointing toward it today.

The strongest argument for Yes is that Greenland has persistent strategic value for the United States, especially for Arctic defense, missile warning, and competition with Russia and China. A more assertive Trump administration could try to force negotiations or seek some unusual arrangement that looks like control even if it falls short of outright annexation. Still, prior interest in Greenland has not translated into a credible path to territorial transfer, and the practical obstacles are steep: Denmark is a NATO ally, Greenland has its own political identity and self-government, and any transfer of territory would be diplomatically explosive.

Compared with the current market price of 25%, the market appears too optimistic on a genuine acquisition outcome. The most likely resolution is that no part of Greenland is formally acquired by the United States before 2029, even if rhetoric, military cooperation, or investment interest intensify. The market may be pricing in a vague loophole around leases or control arrangements, but absent very specific wording in the contract, the base rate for actual U.S. acquisition is low.