Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The core constraint is that this market requires two separate events: impeachment in the House and removal in the Senate. A House impeachment is feasible in a sharply polarized environment if the opposition gains control and there is a strong scandal or abuse-of-power allegation, but actual removal is much harder because it needs a two-thirds Senate vote. That makes the baseline probability meaningfully lower than simple impeachment odds and keeps the overall outcome in low double digits at most.

The time window is long enough to matter. There are still several years before the end of the term, so there is ample opportunity for a major political crisis, legal development, or constitutional confrontation to create momentum for impeachment proceedings. That said, the Senate math is the bottleneck: even under adverse circumstances for Trump, persuading enough members of his own party to vote for removal would be extraordinarily difficult absent a truly overwhelming, bipartisan consensus.

Compared with the current market price of 15% for Yes, I think the market is somewhat too optimistic on the removal part of the proposition. The market may be pricing the possibility of impeachment itself rather than the full impeachment-and-removal chain, or it may be assigning too much weight to rare tail events. I would anchor closer to 10%, with upside only if Trump faces a major scandal, severe criminal findings, or a dramatic collapse in Republican support.