Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The most important fact is that the recent reporting has clearly shifted toward Anthropic being nearer to a public filing and possible listing. Multiple outlets now describe Anthropic as potentially ready to file a prospectus in the near term, while OpenAI’s timeline remains conditional, with a confidential filing that does not lock in when the IPO would actually happen. That asymmetry matters because in IPO races, the company that is already closer to the disclosure stage usually has the better chance of getting to market first if conditions remain supportive.

OpenAI still has major advantages in scale, brand, and access to elite bankers, but those strengths do not necessarily translate into speed. The reports that OpenAI may be aiming for late 2026 or even 2027 suggest internal caution, and the CFO comment that the company would be public in 2027 unless momentum accelerates is a meaningful signal that timing is not yet settled. A confidential S-1 also leaves plenty of room for delay, especially if valuation negotiations, governance issues, or market volatility make the company hesitate.

Against that backdrop, the current market price looks far too bullish on OpenAI going first if yes corresponds to OpenAI. A 94% implied probability assumes a near-certain lead, but the public evidence points to a real race with Anthropic possibly ahead on process and readiness. My independent estimate is that OpenAI is more likely than not to lose the race, though not by a huge margin, because either company could still delay or move opportunistically depending on markets and strategy.