Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Alito will be 79 by the end of Trump’s term, which makes a departure plausible on age and health grounds alone. Supreme Court justices often time retirements strategically, and a Republican president with a GOP Senate creates a favorable window for a conservative justice to exit without risking ideological loss. That said, Alito has shown no public indication that he is preparing to leave, and justices with strong institutional pride often serve well into advanced age unless health or family considerations force a change.

The biggest reason to moderate the probability is that “resign” is a narrower outcome than leaving the Court in general. Many justices ultimately depart because of death or incapacity rather than a formal resignation, and those outcomes do not count here. Even with favorable politics, the base rate of a voluntary retirement over a roughly 3.5-year horizon is not overwhelmingly high, especially for a justice who may believe staying on protects the Court’s conservative bloc.

The market price near 69% implies a very strong expectation of an orderly, politically timed exit, but that seems aggressive given the lack of confirming signals. The more defensible view is that resignation is somewhat more likely than not, yet still far from a near-certain event; the market may be over-weighting age and political incentives while under-weighting the possibility that Alito simply remains on the bench through the term.