Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The market’s threshold is demanding: IMF PortWatch must publish a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls at some point before the deadline, which is closer to near-normal operating conditions than merely an open strait. The recent reporting consistently describes traffic as still far below pre-crisis levels, with examples ranging from only a handful of ships on some days to roughly 25 on stronger days, which is not yet enough to imply a weekly average at or above 60. That makes the current base rate for a Yes outcome low unless there is a rapid and sustained rebound in the next several weeks.

The main argument for Yes is that the direction of travel is better than a pure shutdown narrative. Several reports indicate that ships have begun returning after the ceasefire and reopening agreement, and some sources describe official commitments to restore traffic to prewar levels over a defined period. If the political and security environment continues to stabilize, a backlog-clearing surge could lift the daily average quickly, especially if commercial operators regain confidence and the most disrupted routes normalize faster than expected.

The main argument against Yes is that the recovery still looks fragile and incomplete. Multiple sources describe the Strait as effectively at a standstill or only partially reopened, and the most concrete traffic snapshots cited remain well below the 60-call threshold. Even optimistic commentary suggests weeks to months for normalization, and the time remaining before September 30 may not be enough for a sustained 7-day average to climb from low-double-digit or mid-20s traffic into the 60s.

Market pricing at 24.5% Yes is slightly higher than my assessment, but still broadly consistent with a difficult path to normalization. The key uncertainty is not whether traffic can improve at all, but whether it can improve fast enough and persistently enough to satisfy the rolling-average condition before the deadline. A temporary spike would not matter unless it is large and durable, so the market needs both reopening momentum and operational stability, and the evidence so far supports only the first part.