Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2026 looks very likely to finish as one of the hottest years ever, but the evidence points more toward second place than a new all-time record. The market’s No side is still favored because the strongest forecasts leave meaningful room for 2024 to remain the hottest year.
Analysis
The current evidence base supports a high-ranking year for 2026, but not a clear favorite to beat 2024 outright. Independent climate forecasts and reporting consistently place 2026 in the top tier of global warmth, with some sources describing it as likely second-warmest and others allowing a smaller chance of first place. Carbon Brief’s projection, for example, assigns a 19% chance that 2026 becomes the hottest year, while still treating second place as the most likely single outcome. That makes the Yes outcome plausible, but not the dominant expectation.
The strongest argument for Yes is the persistence of exceptional global heat conditions. Monthly and seasonal data through mid-2026 have been extremely warm, and several sources note that ocean heat remains record-like, which supports elevated global averages for the full year. A strong El Niño or lingering ENSO-related warmth later in the year could still push the annual mean higher than 2024 if the remainder of 2026 stays anomalously hot. The existence of expert forecasts explicitly contemplating a new record means this is not a remote tail outcome; it is a live possibility.
The main argument against Yes is that 2024 remains a very high bar and the available forecasts do not show 2026 decisively surpassing it. The most credible summaries in the provided results lean toward 2026 ending as second warmest or somewhere in the top three, not clearly first. Since the market resolves on NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the final answer depends on a full-year aggregate, and midyear warmth alone is not enough to overturn an established record. With the current market pricing near 40% Yes, I think the market is still somewhat too optimistic about a new record and the fair probability is closer to the high-20s than the 40s.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Several forecasts still assign a meaningful chance, around one-fifth, that 2026 ends as the hottest year on record.
- Arguments for Yes: The year has already shown persistent top-tier warmth, so a modest additional upward surprise could be enough to break the record.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The most credible outlooks currently center on 2026 finishing second rather than first.
- Arguments against Yes: 2024 remains the benchmark to beat, and the evidence so far does not show 2026 clearly exceeding it.
Key drivers
- Mid-2026 global temperatures are already high enough that 2026 is very likely to finish among the warmest years on record.
- The remaining months can still shift the ranking, but forecasts currently favor second place more often than a new record.
Risk factors
- A sustained late-year heat anomaly could still lift the annual mean above 2024 and produce a Yes result.
- Year-to-year ranking differences at the top are often small enough that measurement uncertainty can change the final order.
Scenarios
Best case
Late-year warmth remains unusually strong, the annual global mean edges above 2024, and 2026 is confirmed as the hottest year on record.
Most likely
2026 ends as one of the top two or three warmest years on record, with second place the most probable outcome and first place a live but minority possibility.
Worst case
The remaining months are warm but not exceptional enough, 2024 stays ahead, and 2026 finishes second or third rather than first.
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