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KalshiPolitics

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Volume$257.4K

24h Vol$44

Liquidity$0

End dateDec 31, 2027

Spread3¢

Last trade9¢

AI runs fresh news through an independent probability model. Trades use paper money at live prices.

Price history

Yes price

9¢

In today's edges

PoliticsKalshiKalshi rank #2 · Sep 18, 2026

AI26%

MKT11%

Edge+15Hidden Gem

The bear case for Trump in 2026 looks meaningfully more plausible than the market implies, driven by a real combination of legal defeats, institutional resistance, and the risk of a politically damaging midterm environment. I would price it closer to one-in-four than one-in-nine.

Read the analysis

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