Edges for Jul 5, 2026

Based on the reported May 11, 2026 House impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte and the scheduled Senate trial (July 6, 2026), the factual condition for a 'Yes' has already occurred under the event's plain wording; I assess a 99% independent probability that the event will resolve Yes.

I assess a very high probability that Elon Musk’s Bloomberg-reported net worth will be less than $0.70T on July 31, 2026; I estimate this at about 97% based on typical asset composition and realistic upside scenarios over the next month.

Independent assessment: overwhelmingly likely (already occurred); I assign a 99% probability that Trump has invoked the Insurrection Act during his presidency based on multiple corroborating facts and public statements.

Starbucks is very likely to report above 41,800 total global stores in 2026 — the company is already >41,000 and the incremental number required (~800+) is small relative to the planned pace of expansion.

USAID was officially shuttered as an independent agency on July 1, 2025 and its foreign‑assistance functions were folded into the State Department; I assess a 99% probability that the correct answer to “Will USAID be eliminated?” is Yes.

I assess a relatively low probability (22%) that FOX announcers will say the word "Goal" 60 or more times during the live match broadcast, because reaching 60 utterances requires a combination of many actual goals plus frequent, repeated non-goal uses of the word that are unlikely in a normal World Cup match.

I assess a low probability that the FOX broadcast team will utter the exact string "Goal" 60 or more times during live play; my estimate is 15% based on typical usage patterns, likely number of goals, and broadcast style constraints.

Given the June 30 Supreme Court ruling that the Executive Order contravenes federal statute, active litigation alleging excessive force, and other damaging disclosures, I assess a substantially greater-than-market chance that the described "bear case" for Trump will materialize in 2026.

Independent assessment: very unlikely that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during President Trump's term — I estimate roughly an 18% chance he leaves before 20 Jan 2029.

I view Todd Blanche as a plausible caretaker but not the frontrunner; my independent estimate gives Blanche ~30% chance and Lee Zeldin the single best odds at ~45% given Trump's political incentives and Zeldin’s market traction elsewhere.

Independent assessment: very unlikely the Chicago pro football team will relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season — I estimate ~15% chance.

Based on macro forecasts, the limited size of new fiscal programs, and the historical rarity of >5% quarterly real GDP outside unusual rebounds, I assess a low probability that any quarter from Q1 2025–Q4 2028 will record real GDP above 5%. My independent probability: 8%.

I assess a **72%** chance that the 2025–2028 average annual measles case count will meet the 'Yes' condition (assumed here as average ≥ 2,200 cases/year). The recent 2025 peak and the very strong 2026 trajectory make an above‑2,200 four‑year average the more likely outcome absent major, sustained vaccination gains.

Independent assessment: I assign a 7% probability that Barron Trump will receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029. Legally possible (including pre-emptive pardons), but extremely unlikely given no known charges and strong political disincentives.

Scottie Scheffler has a substantially better than coin‑flip chance to complete the career grand slam by the end of 2027; I estimate ~45% probability despite the market pricing it at ~5%.

Given realized 2025 windfalls plus strong 2026 equity performance, a partial ‘bull case’ outcome for Trump in 2026 is plausible but not probable — I assess a 35% chance that the positive financial/political momentum materializes and persists through 2026.

I assess a 30% probability that Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Wimbledon men's singles title, reflecting his status as a top contender but accounting for grass-court specific uncertainties and a deep field of rivals.

Given available information and structural advantages for Alibaba (resources, active model development, and an alphabetical tie-breaker), I assess a 65% probability that Alibaba will be the top-ranked Chinese company on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena overall leaderboard at the July 31, 2026 check time.

I assess a 65% probability that the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Text Arena leaderboard will debut with a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, because OpenAI’s track record of substantive benchmark improvements and incentives to showcase strong public results outweigh operational and timing risks.

I assess a very low but non-zero chance that Trump will actually regain U.S. control of the Panama Canal during his term; I put the probability at 6% based on legal, diplomatic, and operational constraints versus the rhetorical and contingency-planning signals coming from the U.S. side.

Very unlikely — I assign a low probability (~5%) that Trump will conclude a bona fide new U.S.–China free trade agreement that is put in place before Jan 20, 2029.

I assess a low chance that NYC will register a small positive net population change of 0.01–0.99% over 2025–2027 — the city is more likely to remain stagnant or decline modestly given recent data and weak working‑age population growth.

I assess a roughly 30% probability that another pandemic will occur before GTA VI is released; this is below the market's near‑50/50 split because pandemics remain relatively rare over short-to-medium horizons despite rising zoonotic risks and surveillance blind spots.

Based on current facts and plausible midterm outcomes, I assess a ~44% chance that President Trump will be impeached by Jan 20, 2029 — significantly lower than the market's 64% yes price.

I assess a 60% probability that 21 Savage will be credited as a featured artist on Future's album The Real Me before the market deadline, based on strong collaborative history, commercial incentives, and scheduling plausibility balanced against clearance and creative risks.

I estimate a 32% chance that Ethereum will reach $3,000 at any point before December 31, 2026, reflecting a materially higher outlook than the market-implied 12.5% but still recognizing significant macro and regulatory downside risks.

I assess a roughly 30% chance that Google will hold the #1 spot on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (style control on) at the July 31, 2026 check, meaning it's a plausible but not favored outcome given current public-access dynamics and competitor strength.

Given Google's consistent top-tier performance but strong and fast-moving competition on the Chatbot Arena, I assign a modest but material probability that Google will occupy exactly third place on July 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

I assess a 30% independent probability that Israel and Saudi Arabia will announce full normalization before Jan 20, 2029 — plausible under a negotiated, US-driven package, but overall disfavored by the Gaza war, Saudi domestic constraints, and Israeli political risk.

Given heavy market conviction, favorable FDV math for many tokenomics designs, and Predict.fun's product traction, I assess a strong but not certain likelihood that the token's FDV will exceed $50M one day after launch.

I assess a low probability that President Trump will voluntarily resign before his term ends — roughly 7% — because resignation is historically rare, institutional and political barriers are high, and there is no current evidence he intends to step down.

I assess a very low chance (6%) that the United States will acquire any part of Greenland before 2029; diplomatic, legal, and alliance constraints make a formal transfer of sovereignty extremely unlikely.

**Jay Clayton is the favorite but not a lock;** I assess a 72% independent probability that Jay Clayton becomes Trump’s next confirmed Director of National Intelligence before Jan 20, 2029, with the remainder split among other politically plausible nominees and the acting DNI (Bill Pulte) remaining in place or a different nominee emerging after delays.

Independent assessment: very unlikely they will hold a face-to-face meeting before 2027-01-01; I place the probability at 18% based on public rejections, strategic incentives against meeting, and absence of credible mediators or triggers.

China overtaking U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030 is plausible but not the most likely outcome — I assign a 32% probability that China will be larger in nominal terms by 1 January 2030.

Independent assessment: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to be the next Cabinet member to leave; I assign him a 20% chance of being the next departure and view other contenders (particularly Susie Wiles and Pete Hegseth) as more likely next exits.

United Russia is the most likely party to gain the largest number of seats in the September 2026 State Duma election due to entrenched incumbency advantages and Kremlin incentives to preserve or expand its margin, though economic pressures and war-related fatigue create meaningful downside risk.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely that Donald Trump will successfully buy any part of Greenland during a presidential term; I estimate a 5% chance, with the dominant outcome being continued Danish/Greenlandic refusal and alternative forms of increased U.S. presence rather than outright purchase.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely. I estimate a 7% chance that President Trump will be impeached by the House and subsequently convicted and removed by the Senate before his term ends.

High confidence that at least one of OpenAI or Anthropic will complete an IPO before 2040; long horizon, strong commercial incentives and precedent make a public listing(s) very likely despite regulatory and acquisition risks.

I assess a ~22% chance that Google will top the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on July 31, 2026, reflecting Google’s strong technical position but high short-term competitive risk from OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Mistral, and others and the sensitivity of the Arena ranking to small differences and release timing.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Ethereum will reach $2,500 sometime in July 2026, assigning a probability of 12% based on short time remaining, market pricing, and the balance between high crypto volatility and the absence of confirmed catalysts.

I assess a 65% probability that the RBNZ will raise the OCR at its July 7, 2026 decision, because available market pricing and typical RBNZ incentives favor further tightening unless clear recent disinflationary data have emerged.

I assess a 25% probability that Miami's median home value will be below $1,017,000 on September 30, 2026, reflecting meaningful downside risk from high rates and inventory but a stronger-than-average chance that demand, supply structure, and high-end transactions keep the median at or above the threshold.

Although Lionel Messi remains a top-class scorer and finished as one of the leading scorers at the 2022 World Cup, his advanced age, likely managed minutes, and strong competition make him an underdog for the 2026 Golden Boot; I assess a 28% chance he finishes as the tournament's top goalscorer.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — ~2% chance that the U.S. will acquire any part of Canada before 2029. Trade disputes and rhetoric do not translate into territorial transfer within this time window.

Market signal is strongly in favor of Bryce winning, but limited public data and show-structure volatility justify a modest discount; I assess a 70% probability Bryce Dettloff will be one of the winning men on Love Island USA Season 8.

I assess a strong likelihood that claude-opus-4-6-thinking will top the Chatbot Arena Text Arena overall leaderboard on July 11, 2026, with my best estimate at 80% probability based on current market pricing, leaderboard mechanics, and model stability considerations.

I assess a 12% probability that China will commence a military offensive to seize any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting low but non-negligible risk driven by capability improvements and political triggers weighed against strong deterrence and the high cost of invasion.

I assess a high probability that Elon Musk will be ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, driven by his concentrated exposure to Tesla and large private stakes (SpaceX) that anchor his net worth, though meaningful downside tail risks remain from public market shocks, legal or regulatory events, or major private-valuation markdowns.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (12%) that the Fed's upper bound reaches 5.0% or higher before 2027, reflecting a consensus that further material tightening is unlikely but acknowledging tail risks from inflation re-acceleration or large shocks.

I assess a 32% probability that Portugal will win this World Cup match against Spain, reflecting Portugal's strong attacking upside and knockout-match volatility but Spain's overall structural and depth advantages that make them the favorite.

I assess an 18% chance the 25th Amendment will be used at least once during Trump's presidency — low but material, driven mainly by age/health risks and the nonzero chance of a voluntary or emergency transfer, and tempered by strong political barriers to involuntary removal.

Brazil is the modest favorite with superior squad depth and tournament pedigree, but Norway's high-end attacking threat and the one-game knockout variance keep this far from a foregone conclusion.

I assess a 72% probability that the Fed will make no 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, a bit lower than the current market-implied ~77.6% but still reflecting a strong tilt toward policy remaining on hold absent a sharp downturn or disinflation surprise.

I assess roughly a one-in-five chance that Brown-Forman will enter into a credible acquisition agreement by the end of 2026, reflecting the company's strong strategic value to buyers but balanced against its substantial family influence, stable performance, and the high premium a deal would require.

Given the severe market skew toward 'No' and persistent fundamentals that have kept inflation elevated, I assess a low probability that June 2026 annual CPI will be 3.6% or less, but nonzero due to possible base effects and volatile components.

I assess a low but non-negligible probability that the Department of Education will be legally abolished before Jan 20, 2029 — the administration can hollow it out significantly, but full statutory elimination within the timeframe is unlikely.

I assess a 30% probability that Google will have the top Math model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard on July 31, 2026, reflecting Google's strong research capability but substantial, active competition and measurement uncertainty on Arena.

I assess a 72% chance Anthropic will top the Agent Arena agent leaderboard on July 31, 2026, reflecting strong current performance but nontrivial upside risk from competitor model releases and leaderboard volatility.