Edges for Jun 22, 2026

I assess a better-than-even chance that Starbucks will report more than 41,800 global stores in 2026 — the company is already near that threshold and management growth targets make reaching +800 net stores plausible despite closures and remodeling.

Independent assessment: ~3% probability that Donald Trump will successfully "take back" the Panama Canal during his term (through force, coercive seizure, or formal transfer of sovereignty). Forcible seizure is effectively zero; the small residual probability reflects low‑likelihood diplomatic/coercive scenarios or semantic/contractual reinterpretations of "take back."

I assess a 15% chance that Barron Trump will receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029 — low because there is no current legal exposure and pardoning a family member carries heavy political cost, but nonzero because presidents can and sometimes do issue preemptive clemency and Trump has shown a willingness to use pardons broadly.

I assess a materially higher chance than the market that a recognizable Trump-driven bull case for U.S. markets will manifest in 2026 — chiefly powered by persistent growth, AI-driven earnings upside and investor tolerance for political noise — but meaningful valuation and policy risks keep this a coin with two faces.

There is a substantial chance but not a majority-certainty that the House will impeach President Trump before Jan 20, 2029 — I assess the independent probability at 42%.

I assess a 28% probability that Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting stronger structural barriers in France's two-round system and persistent anti-RN coalitions but recognizing an elevated baseline risk due to Macron being ineligible and ongoing political realignments.

Independent estimate: Scottie Scheffler has a substantially better-than-market chance to complete the career grand slam before 2028 — I estimate ~26% probability, driven by meaningful per-tournament win chances in the 2026 and 2027 U.S. Opens.

I assess a 22% chance Donald Trump will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting his durable political infrastructure and base support tempered by large legal, health, and political uncertainties over a multi-year horizon.

I assess a meaningful but not dominant chance that the full "bear case" for Trump materializes in 2026: roughly one-third probability that the combination of war-driven energy pain, alliance breakdowns, and legal/policy constraints produce a politically damaging cascade.

I assess a low-to-moderate chance that a formal U.S.–China free trade agreement (FTA) will be signed and implemented during Trump's term — my independent probability is 22%. Ongoing tariff-framework talks raise the chance of meaningful deals but do not, by themselves, make an FTA likely.

Given the market-implied near-certainty but acknowledging short-term crypto volatility and tail risks, I assess about an 80% probability that XRP/USDT on Binance will close above $0.80 at the 1-minute candle for 12:00 ET on June 27.

I assess a substantially lower chance than the market that the Chicago pro football team will relocate to a new Illinois site by the 2028 season opener — this is possible but not the most likely path given timeline, approvals, and financing hurdles.

Todd Blanche is very likely to be Trump's next Attorney General — I assess an 88% probability he will be the confirmed AG, with the remaining probability split among late changes, confirmation failure, or a different nominee before January 20, 2029.

I assess a ~18% chance Justice Clarence Thomas resigns during Trump's term. Age and tenure make retirement plausible, but historical patterns, his past behavior, and lack of public signals lower the odds compared with common heuristics.

Independent assessment: ~8% chance the United States will acquire any part of Greenland by 2029. The probability is low because of entrenched Danish sovereignty, Greenlandic political preferences, and normative/legal hurdles; the market (Yes 22%) appears to be overpricing ambiguous interpretations and geopolitical noise.

I assess a 60% chance Corbin Carroll will lead MLB in triples in 2026, reflecting his elite speed, regular lineup role, and likely plate appearances balanced against injury risk, park effects, and the high year-to-year volatility of triples totals.

I assess a strong but not certain chance that Binance BTC/USDT will close above $60,000 at the 12:00 ET 1-minute candle on June 24, assigning an 85% probability based on market pricing, typical short-term volatility, and exchange liquidity versus minute-level execution risk and tail events.

I assess a 38% chance that U.S. annualized quarterly real GDP will exceed 5% in at least one quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028. This reflects the rarity of >5% quarters in normal times, modest upside from possible Trump-era policy shocks, and sizable downside/constraint from political and macro limits.

I assess a 42% chance Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the next Cabinet member to leave the Trump administration — elevated by heavy public speculation and documented friction but restrained by denials and no confirmed departure.

Independent assessment: low but non-negligible chance that Trump secures a sovereignty transfer (any part of Greenland) during his term — I assess this at about 12% by 2029-01-20.

I assess a modest but meaningful chance that at least one Arkham-labeled Satoshi wallet will show an outflow or swap in 2026, driven mainly by the large set of addresses Arkham aggregates and risks of key compromise or mislabeling; however, the most likely outcome remains No given historical dormancy and high probability that true Satoshi keys are lost or will not be used.

Independent assessment: It is very likely there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term — I assess ~92% that no acquisition occurs, with only a small tail probability distributed across high-value purchase outcomes.

I assess a modest chance that USAID will be formally eliminated during Trump's term — likely it will be sharply weakened or have functions moved, but complete statutory abolition is unlikely. My independent probability for 'Yes' is 28%.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — I estimate a ~3% chance the United States will acquire any part of Canada before 2029; contemporary evidence points to trade friction and Arctic defense buildup, not territorial transfer.

I assess a better-than-even chance that Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029 — my independent probability is 65% based on Riyadh's strategic incentives, likely U.S. security brokerage under Trump, and the multi-year timeline available for a deal.

I assess a modest but material chance that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by Dec 31, 2026, higher than the market-implied ~1.9% but still unlikely given macro/regulatory headwinds and the short time window.

I assess a low probability that the Department of Education will be fully abolished before Jan 20, 2029 — roughly a 12% chance — because statutory repeal requires a difficult congressional process, strong institutional resistance, and complex implementation, making abolition unlikely even under divided or unified government.

Given Messi's age, likely minutes management, and the presence of younger elite strikers (notably Mbappé and Haaland) in strong teams, I assess a relatively low probability that Lionel Messi will finish as the top goalscorer at the 2026 World Cup.

I assess a modest but below-even probability (35%) that IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 on any date through July 15, 2026, because the window is short and geopolitical uncertainty still suppresses routine peak traffic despite occasional rebounds.

I assess a 10% chance that Trump will be impeached and removed from office before his term ends — removal requires a rare bipartisan 2/3 Senate conviction, which makes this outcome unlikely absent an extraordinary, credibility-shattering event.

Based on available public signals and typical celebrity-guest patterns, I assess a ~40% chance Blake Lively will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding — plausible but not the default outcome given the lack of confirmation and the event’s likely selective guest list.

I assess a relatively low probability that the 25th Amendment will be used (involuntary or voluntary transfer) during President Trump’s current term — about 18% — because the constitutional and political hurdles are high despite elevated health scrutiny and the president’s advanced age.

Based on immediate, converging signals (ministerial resignation, a looming rival MP swearing-in, and explicit party pressure), I assess a high probability that UK PM Keir Starmer will be the first G7 leader to leave office — but not as certain as the market price implies.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that President Trump will resign before his term ends — about 15% — driven mostly by low historical baseline, institutional barriers, and Trump's demonstrated resistance to conceding power; health or extraordinary legal/political shocks are the primary plausible paths to resignation.

Given the market's strong expectation and typical tokenomics patterns for announced projects, I assess a high probability that Arcium's token FDV will exceed $100M one day after launch, though important execution and exclusion risks remain.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (about 8%) that Zelenskyy and Putin meet before Jul 1, 2026 — public refusal and near-term logistical constraints make it unlikely, but active mediation and last-minute tactical incentives create a small upside.

I assess a ~22% independent chance Elon Musk will himself visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099 — plausible but unlikely given shifted SpaceX priorities, human longevity limits, and the technical/operational hurdles of a Mars trip for a very senior individual.

I assess a below-even chance that H.R.3633 (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) will be enacted by December 31, 2026, because strong industry and bipartisan interest is balanced by significant procedural, jurisdictional, and election-year obstacles.

Based on justice ages, historical vacancy rates and a simple hazard model, I assess ~36% probability the next President will confirm exactly one Supreme Court justice during 2025–2029.

I assess a modest but non-negligible chance that the Supreme Court will overturn Obergefell and thus marriage equality by 2029 — my independent probability is 10%, higher than the market's 5% but still low given legal, political, and practical constraints.

Independent assessment: modestly likely that NYC's population change from July 2025 to July 2027 will fall in the -0.99% to 0% band (small decline / near-flat) — I put the probability at 38%.

I assess a 12% probability that France vs Iraq ends in a draw, meaning a draw is possible but remains a relatively unlikely outcome given France's quality and goal-scoring depth.

Given the ongoing conflict dynamics, domestic political incentives in Iran, and the short time remaining, I assess a low probability that Iran will publicly agree to allow fully unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026.

Given the very narrow $2,000 window (3.3% of $60k), the lack of live price context, and the market's near-certain pricing for No, I assess a low but non-negligible chance that the Binance 1-minute close at 12:00 ET will land in $60,000–$62,000; I assign 6% probability to Yes.