Edges for Jun 23, 2026

Based on CDC annual totals for 2017–2020, the arithmetic average is exactly 447 cases/year; I assess ~99% probability that the market should resolve to that value under the stated interpretation.

I assess a low probability (~12%) that any U.S. quarterly real GDP growth will exceed 5% (annualized) in Q1 2025–Q4 2028 under a Trump presidency — possible under a narrow set of large, atypical shocks or policy moves, but unlikely given historical patterns and macro constraints.

I assess an 85% probability that Spain will finish in some other position (i.e., not be 2026 World Cup champion), because the expanded 48-team format and tournament variance make a Spain title unlikely despite their quality.

Independent estimate: very unlikely but not impossible — I assign a 10% chance Barron Trump is pardoned by Donald Trump before Jan 21, 2029.

I assess a 42% chance Starbucks reports above 41,800 global stores in 2026 — plausible but not the most likely outcome given current public store counts and realistic opening cadence.

Given the market-implied odds (57.5% Yes) and the short time horizon, I assign a slightly higher-than-market probability that BTC will close above $64,000 on Binance at 12:00 ET on June 23, reflecting the combination of recent momentum pricing and the high intraday volatility of Bitcoin.

I assess a very low probability (3%) that Donald Trump will actually 'take back' the Panama Canal during a subsequent term; the legal, diplomatic and practical barriers make successful re‑acquisition highly unlikely.

I assess a materially higher chance than the market that a recognizable Trump-driven bull case for U.S. markets will manifest in 2026 — chiefly powered by persistent growth, AI-driven earnings upside and investor tolerance for political noise — but meaningful valuation and policy risks keep this a coin with two faces.

I assess a substantially lower chance than the market that the Chicago pro football team will relocate to a new Illinois site by the 2028 season opener — this is possible but not the most likely path given timeline, approvals, and financing hurdles.

Given Messi's age, likely minutes management, and the presence of younger elite strikers (notably Mbappé and Haaland) in strong teams, I assess a relatively low probability that Lionel Messi will finish as the top goalscorer at the 2026 World Cup.

There is a substantial chance but not a majority-certainty that the House will impeach President Trump before Jan 20, 2029 — I assess the independent probability at 42%.

I assess a ~33% chance that Israel and Saudi Arabia will fully normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029 — plausible given U.S. leverage and Saudi pragmatism, but still unlikely because of the Palestinian demand, domestic politics in Riyadh, and Israel’s security concerns about any Iran accommodation.

I assess a low probability that USAID will be fully eliminated during Trump's current term: I estimate about an 18% chance that the agency will be abolished (not merely downsized or folded administratively) by 20 Jan 2029.

I assess a meaningful but not dominant chance that the full "bear case" for Trump materializes in 2026: roughly one-third probability that the combination of war-driven energy pain, alliance breakdowns, and legal/policy constraints produce a politically damaging cascade.

Based on available public signals and typical celebrity-guest patterns, I assess a ~40% chance Blake Lively will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding — plausible but not the default outcome given the lack of confirmation and the event’s likely selective guest list.

I assess a low probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will resign during President Trump's current term — I estimate roughly an 18% chance, driven mainly by his continued active participation, stated intent to serve long, and the political difficulty of forcing a resignation absent major new developments.

I assess a 46% chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be the next Trump Cabinet member to leave — I view the consistent, specific rumor stream + policy friction as meaningful signals and the market (28%) appears to underprice that information.

Todd Blanche is very likely to be Trump's next Attorney General — I assess an 88% probability he will be the confirmed AG, with the remaining probability split among late changes, confirmation failure, or a different nominee before January 20, 2029.

I assess a low probability (~6%) that the United States will formally acquire any part of Greenland by 2029. Strong strategic incentives exist, but overwhelming diplomatic, legal, and political barriers make a sovereign transfer unlikely in the available time horizon.

I assess a low probability (18%) that President Trump will conclude a new, comprehensive US–China free trade agreement (FTA) by Jan 20, 2029 — managed‑trade or sectoral tariff deals are plausible, but a full FTA faces major political and structural barriers.

I assess a 15% chance Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2028, reflecting his persistent base strength and nomination experience balanced against significant legal, health, and intra-party obstacles that make his nomination unlikely but possible.

I assign an 18% independent probability that Scottie Scheffler completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 — essentially his chance to win the 2027 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach (the only clearly relevant U.S. Open in the window given the 2028 cutoff).

I estimate an 18% chance that U.S. government spending will be reduced by $250 billion (nominal annual outlays) before 2028 — possible via a combination of legislative cuts, one‑time accounting changes, or macro shocks, but still an uphill political and institutional climb.

I assess a modestly greater-than-even chance that BTC/USDT on Binance will close above $64,000 at the 1-minute candle for 12:00 ET on June 27, assigning a 56% probability based on market pricing, short-term volatility, and likely flow dynamics in the coming five days.

I assess a low probability that the U.S. under President Trump will acquire sovereignty or exclusive control of any Greenland territory by Jan 20, 2029 — the barriers are legal, political and diplomatic, and there is no public evidence of credible negotiations that would change that calculus.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term — the legal, political, constitutional, and popular barriers make transfer of sovereignty overwhelmingly unlikely within the timeframe.

I assess a relatively low probability that the 25th Amendment will be used (involuntary or voluntary transfer) during President Trump’s current term — about 18% — because the constitutional and political hurdles are high despite elevated health scrutiny and the president’s advanced age.

I assess a modest but meaningful chance that at least one Arkham-labeled Satoshi wallet will show an outflow or swap in 2026, driven mainly by the large set of addresses Arkham aggregates and risks of key compromise or mislabeling; however, the most likely outcome remains No given historical dormancy and high probability that true Satoshi keys are lost or will not be used.

I assess a materially non-trivial chance that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act at some point during his term — my independent estimate is 30% — because the legal authority exists, the rhetorical and political groundwork is in place, and a plausible crisis could trigger it, but strong institutional and political brakes make it more likely he will not.

Based on immediate, converging signals (ministerial resignation, a looming rival MP swearing-in, and explicit party pressure), I assess a high probability that UK PM Keir Starmer will be the first G7 leader to leave office — but not as certain as the market price implies.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — I estimate a ~3% chance the United States will acquire any part of Canada before 2029; contemporary evidence points to trade friction and Arctic defense buildup, not territorial transfer.

I assess a ~22% independent chance Elon Musk will himself visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099 — plausible but unlikely given shifted SpaceX priorities, human longevity limits, and the technical/operational hurdles of a Mars trip for a very senior individual.

I assess a modestly better-than-even chance that NYC’s population change from July 2025 to July 2027 will fall in the narrow band of −0.99% to 0% (a very small decline or essentially flat). This reflects stabilization after pandemic losses but weighs persistent out‑migration pressures.

Keith Sonderling is the clear favorite to be Trump's next Secretary of Labor; I assign him a 62% independent probability based on his acting incumbency, prior Senate confirmation to a senior Labor Department role, and policy alignment with the administration.

Marine Le Pen has a non-negligible but still relatively low chance of winning in 2027; I assess about a 15% probability that she will become President, with the primary obstacles being the two-round system and durable anti-RN coalition dynamics balanced against RN normalization and vulnerability of mainstream rivals.

I assess a 10% chance that Trump will be impeached and removed from office before his term ends — removal requires a rare bipartisan 2/3 Senate conviction, which makes this outcome unlikely absent an extraordinary, credibility-shattering event.

Given the market-implied probability near 2% and the limited time remaining in 2026, I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 by year-end; my best estimate is 9% based on historical cycle behavior, macro drivers, and the need for a concentrated, large rally in the remaining months.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that President Trump will resign before his term ends — about 15% — driven mostly by low historical baseline, institutional barriers, and Trump's demonstrated resistance to conceding power; health or extraordinary legal/political shocks are the primary plausible paths to resignation.

I assess a 43% probability that IMF Portwatch will publish a 7‑day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 for at least one date on or before July 31, 2026, reflecting a modest chance of recovery given remaining time but significant geopolitical and demand-side downside risks.

Croatia are the clear favorites given superior squad quality, international experience, and tactical cohesion, so I assess a strong but not overwhelming chance they will win this match.

I assess Netanyahu has a modest plurality chance to return as Israel’s next sworn-in prime minister after the 27 October 2026 election, primarily because of incumbency advantages, a resilient right-wing coalition base, and his coalition-building skill, partially offset by legal exposure, coalition fragility, and the possibility of unified opposition blocs.

I assess a modest but below-even probability (35%) that IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 on any date through July 15, 2026, because the window is short and geopolitical uncertainty still suppresses routine peak traffic despite occasional rebounds.

I assess a roughly 18% chance this group-stage World Cup match ends in a draw, slightly above the market-implied 12.5% because Ghana's defensive profile and tournament variance make a stalemate plausible but England's quality and attacking depth make a draw less likely than a decisive result.

I assess a roughly 12% probability that Ethereum will reach $1,900 during June 22–28, reflecting the market's low implied chance but allowing for a non-negligible tail given ETH's historical weekly volatility and possible macro or crypto-specific catalysts.

I assign an 18% probability that George Russell will be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion, modestly above the market-implied 14.5% based on his driving level and the potential for regulation-driven shifts in team competitiveness.

I assess the Yankees have a modest but non-negligible chance to win the 2026 World Series, slightly above the market-implied 14.5% due to organizational resources and upside in roster moves, offset by strong AL East competition and postseason variance.

I assess a low but non-negligible probability that Ethereum will reach $10,000 by Dec 31, 2026; the market currently prices this near 1.65%, and my view raises that to 6% based on plausible but unlikely macro and adoption-driven upside scenarios.

Given the market-implied probability and the short time horizon, I assess a high chance that the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on June 24 will be above $60,000, but nonzero tail risks from flash crashes or exchange-specific anomalies justify a small discount from current market pricing.