Edges for Jun 7, 2026

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Elon Musk becomes a trillionaire before 2027 — roughly 12% — because a narrow set of high-impact, near-term events could push his paper net worth above $1T, but those paths are unlikely and rely on speculative catalysts.

I assess Scottie Scheffler has a substantially better-than-market chance to complete a career grand slam before 2028, driven by multiple remaining major opportunities and his status as a dominant, still-young world-class player — I place the probability at 42%.

Given SpaceX's technical trajectory, Musk's high personal willingness to take risks, and the long (73-year) horizon to Aug 1, 2099, I assess a materially better-than-market chance that Elon Musk will visit Mars before that date — my independent probability is 45%.

I assess a very low chance that President Trump will literally ‘take back’ ownership and operation of the Panama Canal during his term; I assign a 5% probability that the canal will be returned to U.S. control by 2029.

I estimate a ~35% chance that a credible, broadly-recognized “bear case” for Trump will materialize in 2026 — higher than the market’s 10% — because ongoing legal friction, plausible economic or foreign-policy shocks, and political dynamics make at least one major reputational or governance setback more than a negligible risk.

I assess a 65% chance that the U.S. will fall below 7.60 on the Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index at some point during the 2025–2028 Trump administration — plausible given elevated institutional stress, but far from certain because many democratic inputs change slowly and the EIU scoring has inertia.

I assess a 70% independent probability that Elon Musk will be the world's first trillionaire before 2030, driven mainly by a high-probability SpaceX IPO at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation combined with Musk's large existing paper wealth; however, material downside risks (IPO timing/valuation, market swings, lockups) keep the outcome from being certain.

Given the strong market consensus but significant logistical and political constraints, I assess a 72% probability that President Trump will attend at least part of the 2026 NBA Finals.

Board action toward Hammond improves the odds the Bears will choose Indiana as their future home, but the timeline and missing approvals make relocation by the 2028 season unlikely; I assign a 35% independent probability that the team will relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 regular season.

I assess a substantially better-than-market chance that Trump achieves a tangible "bull case" in 2026 — meaningful, enforceable immigration and enforcement wins paired with visible political momentum — but it remains far from certain due to legal and administrative headwinds.

Independent assessment: I estimate a **45%** chance Blake Lively will attend Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce’s wedding on 2028-12-31 — a near coin-flip leaning slightly toward attendance based on celebrity social-networks and typical wedding invitation behavior, but limited by lack of concrete evidence and many plausible barriers.

I assess a 30% chance that any quarterly real GDP (annualized q/q) will exceed 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028. The news shows supportive momentum and upside policy risk, but historical rarity of >5% real quarters and persistent inflation/tariff headwinds make a >5% quarter unlikely though not impossible.

Given the market-implied price (Yes ~81%) and the mechanics of a one-minute Binance candle, I assess a slightly lower but still strong probability that ETH will close above $1,500 at 12:00 ET on June 7, primarily because spot is likely already above the level and short-term directional momentum and liquidity on Binance favor holding that level through a single minute.

I assess a meaningful but not high chance that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2026; I assign a 20% probability based on historical volatility and plausible bullish catalysts balanced against macro and regulatory risks.

I assess a low-to-moderate chance that USAID will be fully eliminated during a Trump term: about a 22% probability. Partial dismantling, budget cuts, or functional transfers are substantially more likely than a clean abolition.

I assess a low chance that Trump will complete a legal purchase (even of part) of Greenland during his term — my independent probability is 8%. The far more likely outcome is expanded U.S. security presence via leases or agreements rather than a sovereignty transfer.

I assess a low but non-trivial chance that the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland before 2029: strong rhetoric raises tail-risk, but legal, political, and practical barriers make actual transfer unlikely.

Anthropic is the clear near-term favorite given reports of a confidential S-1 filing; on a 2040 horizon I assess a very high probability that *at least one* of them (most likely Anthropic) will IPO first. My independent probability for the 'Yes' outcome is 92%.

I estimate a 72% chance ETH will be above $1,500 on the Binance 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on June 8, slightly below the market-implied probability but reflecting short-term volatility and limited known downside catalysts over the next 48 hours.

I assess there is a low probability that the four-year (2025–2028) average annual measles case count will meet the high threshold implied by the 'Yes' outcome (I interpret 'Yes' as the average ≧ 2,000 cases/year). One very large 2026 year makes a high average possible but not likely without sustained multi-year large outbreaks.

I assess a ~20% independent chance that Justice Clarence Thomas will voluntarily resign during the 2025–2029 Trump term. He is active with no announced intention to leave; age and rare-but-possible scandal/health events create non-trivial but modest risk.

I assess a 78% probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on June 30, 2026, reflecting strong market confidence in NVIDIA’s AI-driven momentum balanced against nontrivial macro, competitive, and event risks that could reverse its lead in a short window.

I assign a 30% chance that Barron Trump will be granted a presidential pardon by Jan 21, 2029. The baseline is low because there is no known federal legal exposure, but nonzero because presidents can and sometimes do issue preemptive or politically motivated pardons — and this president has shown willingness to use clemency actively.

I assess a materially non-negligible but still modest chance that the Supreme Court will overturn Obergefell before 2029 — about a 22% probability — driven by doctrinal willingness to revisit substantive-due-process precedents and the possibility of a certiorari vehicle, but constrained by procedural hurdles, political costs, and the Respect for Marriage Act.

Given Trump’s enduring organizational strength and base support but substantial legal, age, and party-organizational obstacles, I assess a modest but non-negligible 15% chance he wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

Market is heavily skewed toward Yes, but uncertainty about tokenomics, launch timing, and short-term price dynamics justify discounting the market-implied probability; I assess an 82% chance that Predict.fun's governance-token FDV will exceed $50M one day after launch.

I assess a materially higher-than-market chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act before 2027-01-01 — about a 30% probability — because of his repeated threats, playbook of executive escalation, and the plausible contingency of large, sustained unrest or a contested election environment that he would view as justifying military deployment.

I assess a relatively low but non-negligible chance that the 25th Amendment will be invoked at least once during Trump's presidency—most likely via a voluntary Section 3 transfer for a routine medical procedure rather than a forcible Section 4 removal. My independent probability: 15%.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — about a 1% chance that the United States will acquire any part of Canada before 2029. Only dramatic, low-probability collapse or a very narrow technical transfer would make this happen.

The market-implied probability (96.5%) strongly favors 'Yes', but accounting for exchange microstructure risk, 1-minute candle volatility, and the possibility of localized Binance dislocation, I estimate an 85% chance Bitcoin will be above $50,000 at the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on June 13.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (7%) that Trump will be both impeached and removed before his term ends — impeachment is materially more likely than removal, but Senate conviction (the removal step) remains highly improbable absent extraordinary, bipartisan-breaking events.

I assess a modest probability that Elon Musk posts fewer than 40 X posts across the 48-hour window, because while he is frequently prolific, there are plausible operational or personal constraints that could keep his count below 40.

A U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term is extremely unlikely; I assign a 92% chance that no formal transfer occurs, with a small residual chance split across the listed purchase-price bands.

I assign a low probability that China will overtake U.S. nominal GDP by 2030 — about 12% — because the nominal gap is large and closing it in the remaining years would require sustained, unusually strong nominal outperformance and/or a major RMB revaluation.

I assess a 78% probability that Binance BTC/USDT will close above $58,000 on the 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on June 10, slightly below the market-implied ~85% to account for short-term volatility and macro risks.

I assess a 46% chance NYC will register a small population increase (0.01%–0.99%) from July 2025 to July 2027 — the most likely single-bin outcome given modest historical volatility, natural change, and limited upside/downside migration drivers over this two-year window.

Based on historical EO rates and institutional constraints, a 400–449 total across a four-year Trump second term is unlikely; I assess it at about 10%.

Marine Le Pen remains a plausible contender but faces entrenched structural barriers in France's two-round system; I assign a 12% chance she wins the 2027 presidency.

I assess **Todd Blanche** as the most likely nominee and eventual Attorney General — I assign him a 72% chance based on incumbency as acting AG, Trump's prior relationship, and a GOP-controlled Senate pathway to confirmation.

I assess a ~22% chance James Ho becomes the next Supreme Court Justice by Jan 20, 2029 — plausible if a conservative president nominates and Republicans control or split the Senate, but contingent on timing and fierce competition from other conservative jurists.

I assess a very low but non‑zero chance that President Trump will succeed in ending the Federal Reserve by Jan 20, 2029 — my independent probability is 4%.

The market currently prices this outcome as nearly certain; after adjusting for Bitcoin's short-term volatility and tail risks I assign a high but slightly lower probability that BTC will be above $50,000 on June 12 at 12:00 ET.

I assess about an 18% chance the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series, slightly higher than the market-implied 12.5% because organizational resources, payroll flexibility, and postseason experience give them a meaningful edge, but roster uncertainty, AL competition, and baseball variance keep the probability modest.

I assess a low but non-negligible probability that Ethereum will reach $10,000 by 31 Dec 2026; this requires a large market-wide risk-on rally, strong institutional flows, and materially higher on-chain demand all converging over the next 7 months.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (around 18%) that IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 for any date through June 30, 2026, because current market sentiment and likely recent data point to below-threshold traffic but upside exists from rapid normalization or data revisions.

I assess a 90% probability that the FOMC will leave the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged at the July 2026 meeting, reflecting strong market consensus tempered by a modest chance of a 25 bp move if incoming data surprises.

I assess a low probability that Ukraine will publicly agree not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, because doing so would require a rapid, high-cost political concession (likely tied to a major, fast-moving peace deal) that remains unlikely within the three-week window.

Given the very strong market-implied probability and the short five-day horizon, I assess a high likelihood that the Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on June 12 will be above $0.60, while discounting a small but real chance of a minute-scale flash move or exchange/data anomaly that could flip the outcome.