Edges for May 28, 2026

I estimate a ~12% chance Elon Musk’s net worth will exceed $1 trillion before 2027. It’s possible but requires one or more very large, fast-moving valuation events (an outsized SpaceX public valuation and/or a dramatic Tesla rally) within ~7 months.

Given normal traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz and the short remaining window, I assess a very high probability that IMF Portwatch will publish at least one daily transit count of 20 or more by May 31, 2026.

I assess a 33% probability that headline CPI will exceed 4.0% in any month of 2026; this is materially lower than the market-implied ~98% but reflects uncertainty about major upside shocks and the historical difficulty of re-accelerating CPI absent large energy or shelter moves.

OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to be the first of the two to complete an IPO by 2040; based on current public signals I assess a substantially better-than-even chance that OpenAI goes first.

I assign a 22% chance that at least one U.S. quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028 will show real GDP above 5% annualized — a plausible but distinctly tail outcome driven by one-off rebounds, large fiscal shocks, or concentrated AI-led capex bursts.

I assess a very low probability (4%) that the U.S. will legally or forcibly regain sovereign control of the Panama Canal during Trump's term; the market (~31%) is highly overstating plausibility driven by political narrative rather than realistic pathways.

I assess a 20% chance Barron Trump is granted a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029 — low but non-negligible because preemptive clemency is legally possible and Trump has shown willingness to use pardons aggressively, while there is currently no public legal trigger and high political cost to pardoning a son.

I assess a solid but not overwhelming probability that Elon Musk will be the world's first trillionaire by 2030—SpaceX going public at a very high valuation is the dominant path, but meaningful execution, dilution, timing and macro risks leave substantial downside.

I assess a 28% chance that the equity-market "bull case" described in the brief (AI-led earnings durability, a continuing S&P upside through 2026, and a meaningful broadening of the rally) will materialize in 2026. The structural upside from AI is real, but concentrated leadership, macro/monetary risks, and event ambiguity make the outcome more likely to fail than succeed within a single calendar year.

**Independent assessment:** I assign a 15% chance that the United States will formally acquire any part of Greenland by 2029 — a low but non‑negligible probability driven by political unpredictability and strategic tail routes, but strongly limited by legal, diplomatic, and local political barriers.

I assess a ~43% chance that President Trump will be impeached by the House before Jan 20, 2029 — a meaningful but not majority probability driven by the 2026 House outcome and the pace of new incriminating evidence.

Given the political and military incentives on both sides, I assess a relatively low but nontrivial chance that President Trump will publicly announce the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 31, 2026, with the probability around 30%. The requirement for an explicit qualifying statement raises the bar, and strategic incentives favor keeping the blockade in place absent a clear diplomatic payoff or domestic pressure to rescind it.

Independent estimate: Scottie Scheffler has about a 24% chance to complete the career Grand Slam (i.e., win a U.S. Open) before 2028 — materially higher than the current market price (Yes: 6%).

I assess a low probability (10%) that President Trump will succeed in buying (i.e., having the United States acquire sovereignty over) at least part of Greenland during his term; there is a small non‑zero chance driven by pressure tactics, creative legal framing, or a lease/limited acquisition, but major political and legal barriers make success unlikely.

The Carolina Hurricanes are strong contenders with a roster and system that frequently produce deep playoff runs, but given variability in goaltending, injuries, and tough competition, I assess their chance to win the 2026 Stanley Cup at 42%. This is modestly lower than the market-implied near-50% price, reflecting structural uncertainty and the number of viable challengers remaining.

I assess a materially higher-than-market but still modest probability that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by Dec 31, 2026, assigning an 18% chance based on historical post-halving dynamics, possible institutional flows, and significant macro and regulatory risks that make a >3x move within the timeframe unlikely but plausible under a strong bull liquidity regime.

I assess it as overwhelmingly likely there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during President Trump's term — the diplomatic, legal, legislative, and political barriers make an actual purchase extremely unlikely.

I assess a low probability that the United States will definitively accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, because the window for a negotiated, public agreement is extremely short and political barriers to such an announcement remain high.

Given both fighters' standing in the bantamweight division, the UFC incentive to create high-profile contender matchups, and the long time window for an announcement, I assign a moderately high probability that Merab Dvalishvili's next officially announced opponent will be Petr Yan.

I estimate a modestly-favored but far from certain chance (45%) that the Chicago pro football team will complete a relocation to a new Illinois site in time for the 2028 regular-season opener; substantial hurdles make this outcome only plausible with concrete, fast-moving progress over the next 24 months.

Market strongly favors Yes and liquidity/depth on Binance make a June 2 noon close above $66,000 plausible; I assign a high but not certain probability because short-term tail risks (flash crashes, exchange outages, negative macro/regulatory shocks) remain non-negligible.

I assess Marine Le Pen has a modest but non-negligible chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election, primarily because of long-term growth of the National Rally vote and possible fragmentation among her opponents, but institutional and behavioural barriers make a victory unlikely; my probability estimate is 15%.

I assess a strong but not absolute probability that Bitcoin will be above $70,000 at Binance at 12:00 ET on May 29, assigning an 86% chance based on high market-implied odds tempered by 1-minute candle idiosyncrasies and tail risks.

I assess a **12%** independent probability that President Trump will voluntarily resign before his term ends — low but materially above a historical zero baseline; the market at ~21% appears to be pricing additional tail risks or confusion with removal pathways.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (~10%) that Alex Pereira will be the UFC Light Heavyweight champion on December 31, 2026, reflecting his elite striking upside but recognizing structural, timing, and divisional obstacles that make this outcome unlikely within the remaining calendar year.

Given the very short time until the June 30 cutoff and persistent technical and political obstacles on both sides, I assess a significantly less-than-even chance of a publicly announced US–Iran nuclear agreement by the deadline; it's possible but unlikely.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Donald Trump will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination; the market-implied probability is extremely low and I put the probability modestly higher due to his enduring base and organizational strengths, but legal, health, and party dynamics make success unlikely.

Given strong AI-driven revenue momentum and heavy investor positioning, I assess a high probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market capitalization on the June 30, 2026 close, but meaningful tail risks keep the chance short of certainty.

I assess an 8% probability that Ethereum will reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026, reflecting a low but non-negligible tail-upside tied to a broad crypto bull market and strong institutional flows versus substantial macro, regulatory, and adoption constraints.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Trump will be impeached and removed before the term ends — roughly 15% — because removal requires an unusually high bipartisan break in the Senate that is unlikely absent a major, indisputable scandal or crisis.

A 50+ bps cut immediately after the September 2026 FOMC meeting is unlikely absent a pronounced economic or financial shock; I assign a low probability because the Fed historically moves in smaller increments and would normally wait for clearer evidence of rapid deterioration.

I assess the New York Yankees have an 18% chance to win the 2026 World Series, slightly above the current market-implied probability, based on organizational resources and upside tempered by rotation health, AL competition, and postseason variance.

I assess McLaren has a small but non-negligible chance to win the 2026 Constructors' Championship; I estimate about a 9% probability based on the team's driver strength and development upside balanced against stronger factory teams and resource gaps.

I assess a 30% probability that Aryna Sabalenka will win the 2026 US Open, slightly above the market-implied 25.5% because her power game and prior hard-court results give her a realistic path to the title, but strong competition and inconsistency cap her upside.

I assess a low probability that the U.S. will formally acquire territory not under its sovereignty before Jan 1, 2027 — most plausible path is Greenland but political, legal, and timing obstacles make success unlikely.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (12%) that the U.S. will issue a Level 4 (Do Not Travel) advisory for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027 — the baseline is stable (Level 1) and Level 4 requires an extreme shock, but rapid escalation or an acute security catastrophe could produce such a move.

If the question is interpreted as *legal/statutory* abolition by act of Congress, I assess a ~40% chance USAID will be formally eliminated by the end of Trump's term; if the market resolves on *functional* elimination, that outcome is already ~95% certain given operations ceased in 2025.