Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to be the first of the two to complete an IPO by 2040; based on current public signals I assess a substantially better-than-even chance that OpenAI goes first.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore current market prices):**
- OpenAI has the clearest, public-facing timeline: multiple reputable reports say OpenAI is *targeting* a public listing as early as September 2026 (valuation reports > $1T). That is a concrete, timebound signal that management and key stakeholders are (at minimum) preparing for an IPO.
- Anthropic has no comparable, public timeline in the provided materials. Its fundraising cadence, governance choices, and product roadmap are less publicly tied to an imminent listing. That absence of a public IPO signal lowers the prior that Anthropic will beat OpenAI to market, all else equal.
- Market receptivity to AI-focused IPOs is presently favorable (recent AI-centric listings have been strong relative to other tech IPOs), which reduces the "market window" risk for an early OpenAI offering.
- Structural factors that favor OpenAI going first: (a) heavier public scrutiny and attention creates pressure for liquidity events; (b) large strategic investors (Microsoft) have incentives to crystallize value or simplify ownership; (c) the company already behaves like a near-public entity in reporting and governance discussions, indicating preparation.
- Key uncertainties that cut the other way: OpenAI’s unusual corporate structure (capped-return vehicle, nonprofit parent influence) and intense regulatory/safety scrutiny by governments and regulators could materially delay or complicate an IPO timeline. Antitrust, national-security review, or governance questions could slow or prevent a 2026 IPO and even push an IPO much later.
- Given the concrete OpenAI signals and the lack of comparable Anthropic signals, but also accounting for meaningful regulatory and structural risks, my independent (blind) probability that OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic (i.e., OpenAI is the first to IPO) by 2040 is 72%.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current prices and explain divergence):**
- The market currently prices "Yes" at ~0.26. Interpreting "Yes" as "OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic," the market is implying OpenAI is a heavy underdog. That contrasts sharply with the public reporting that explicitly names OpenAI as targeting a 2026 IPO and the absence of any Anthropic timeline.
- Reasons the market might be discounting OpenAI’s probability so heavily (possible rationales rather than endorsements): - **Question ambiguity / market confusion:** The market wording is slightly sloppy; traders may be uncertain whether the bet asks "Which company will IPO first (OpenAI vs Anthropic)?" versus "Will either company IPO before 2040?" Ambiguity often suppresses prices and liquidity and can lead to mispricing. - **Long-horizon discounting / tail-risk focus:** Some traders may be focusing on catastrophic regulatory scenarios that block OpenAI from ever listing (e.g., forced structural changes, government restrictions), or on acquisition scenarios in which Microsoft or another buyer buys the company outright, making a public IPO unnecessary. Those scenarios are possible but not dominant in my view. - **Liquidity and participant mix:** With only ~172k contracts traded and likely concentrated positions, informed traders can push prices away from fundamentals via liquidity effects. Retail or uninformed flow can also create apparent anomalies. - **Hedging / complex positions:** Large players might be shorting this contract as part of broader portfolios (e.g., long Anthropic or long AI ETF) and so the price may reflect cross-hedging rather than pure view on which firm goes first.
- After accounting for those market-side reasons I still believe the available public evidence makes OpenAI the favorite. The market price appears materially lower than justified by the observable signals. That makes this contract look mispriced to someone who accepts the interpretation that the question asks whether OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic.
- Caveat: If the market interprets the question differently (e.g., "Will either company IPO before 2040?"), then 0.26 would make sense only if the market thinks there's a ~26% chance that at least one IPO happens before 2040 — a view I find implausible. Clarify question semantics before acting. If semantics are as I assume (OpenAI first vs Anthropic first), the current market looks like a buying opportunity on "Yes."
Arguments
For
- Concrete, reputable reporting that OpenAI is targeting an IPO as early as September 2026 — a timebound signal that strongly favors OpenAI going first.
- OpenAI’s extremely large size, visibility, and investor base create both motive and practical capacity to pursue a high-profile IPO sooner rather than later.
- Favorable sentiment for AI-focused public offerings at present reduces near-term market-window risk for an early OpenAI IPO.
- Anthropic lacks a comparable public timeline or filing signal in the provided materials, making it less likely (on current evidence) to be first.
Against
- OpenAI’s unusual governance and capped-profit structure introduces unique legal and disclosure complexities that could delay SEC clearance for an IPO.
- Intense regulatory and political scrutiny of advanced AI companies could trigger holds, conditions, or structural remedies that delay a public listing.
- Both companies could be acquired or otherwise avoid traditional IPOs; an acquisition of OpenAI would make Anthropic the de facto remaining candidate (or vice versa).
- Anthropic could choose a faster, less encumbered route to market (e.g., different corporate structure, simpler governance) and thereby outpace OpenAI despite fewer public signals.
Key drivers
- OpenAI's reported target timetable for an IPO (as early as Sept 2026) and preparatory activity
- Public and investor pressure/liquidity needs from major shareholders (e.g., strategic investors like Microsoft)
- Regulatory and governance reviews (SEC, national security, AI-specific regulation) that could delay or block a listing
- Anthropic's undisclosed/no-public timeline and business strategy relative to OpenAI
Risk factors
- Regulatory intervention that materially delays or prevents OpenAI’s IPO (antitrust, national-security, AI governance rules)
- Corporate-structure complications (capped-profit model and nonprofit governance) that raise SEC/underwriter concerns
- Acquisition by a strategic buyer (e.g., Microsoft or other) which could eliminate a public listing or change which firm lists first
- Anthropic accelerates its own timeline or pursues a rapid listing route (SPAC, simpler governance) and beats OpenAI to market
- Market-window and macro conditions (a severe IPO market downturn could push planned listings far out)
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI proceeds with an IPO in 2026–2028 (as signaled), clears regulatory review with manageable conditions, and lists well before Anthropic — outcome matches current press and yields a decisive first-mover listing for OpenAI.
Most likely
OpenAI is the first to file and list sometime in the late 2020s after navigating regulatory and structural hurdles; Anthropic either lists later in the 2030s or is acquired before it can beat OpenAI to market.
Worst case
Regulators impose structural or operational requirements on OpenAI that either materially delay or prevent an IPO, and Anthropic (or a third party via acquisition) becomes the first to list or neither lists and both remain private through other liquidity events.
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