Edges for May 25, 2026

Given the short timeline but strong market conviction and clear U.S. incentives to avoid a lapse, I assess a modestly higher-than-even chance that the U.S. will publicly announce a qualifying extension or successor agreement by May 26.

Given Pickens' expected free agency status in 2026 and Atlanta's plausible need for outside receiving talent, I assess a below-market but meaningful probability that he signs with the Falcons for 2026-27, weighing competition from other suitors and the possibility the Steelers re-sign him or he signs elsewhere.

I assess a roughly one-in-four chance that Donald Trump will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, meaning Yes is unlikely but plausible if several favorable conditions align for him.

I assign a 64% probability that the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals, slightly above the market-implied probability, based on the market signal combined with team fundamentals and typical playoff variance.

Given the modest threshold (7-day MA ≥ 60), historical resilience of shipping through Hormuz, and current 50/50 market pricing, I assess a somewhat better-than-even chance that transit calls will reach the threshold by June 30, 2026 (prediction 62%).

I assess a moderate but not dominant chance that George Russell wins the 2026 Drivers' Championship, assigning 42% probability based on his skill and Mercedes' resources balanced against strong rivals and rule-change uncertainty.

I assess a 30% probability that the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research or weapon development by June 30, 2026; the short remaining window and political obstacles make a deal unlikely, though a last-minute interim or framework agreement remains possible.

I assess a 75% probability that IMF Portwatch will publish a daily Strait of Hormuz transit count of at least 20 ships on some day by May 31, 2026, because routine commercial traffic normally produces days with 20+ transits and there is limited time remaining for an extended outage to prevent it.

Given the very short time window and high political cost of publicly accepting Iranian uranium enrichment, I assess a low probability that the United States will definitively agree to continued enrichment by May 31, 2026, but limited, highly conditional concessions remain plausible.

Marine Le Pen has a meaningful but still small path to victory: she is a durable, high-profile contender with a solid base, but structural and coalition dynamics in French runoffs make her overall probability of winning the 2027 election low; I assess about a 12% chance she wins.

I assess McLaren has a modest but above-market chance to win the 2026 Constructors' Championship due to the large technical reset in 2026 and the team's resources, but the dominance and organizational advantages of Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari make a title unlikely; my probability is 12%.

I assess a modest but non-negligible chance that Alex Pereira will be the UFC Light Heavyweight champion on December 31, 2026, reflecting his high upside as an elite striker but significant headwinds from depth of the division, aging, and injury/inactivity risk.

Given the very short time window remaining and persistently low market-implied odds, I assess a low probability that IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls >=60 before May 31, 2026; I estimate an 8% chance of Yes.

I assess a high probability that the Fed will leave the upper bound of the federal funds target range unchanged at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, though nonzero risk remains of a 25–50 bps move if incoming data or financial stress materially change the outlook.

I assess the New York Yankees have a modest but real chance to win the 2026 World Series, slightly above the market-implied 13.5% due to organizational resources and recurring contention, tempered by playoff randomness and strong competition; my probability estimate is 18%.

I assess a roughly 40% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next Prime Minister after the 2026 election, reflecting his enduring advantages but significant legal and coalition vulnerabilities that make his return uncertain.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that XRP will touch $1.60 before the end of May, primarily because the time window is very short and would require a large, rapid rally or a surprise positive catalyst.

I assess an 82% probability that IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 on at least one date by December 31, 2026, because baseline traffic historically sits near that threshold and the economic incentives to transit the strait remain strong despite episodic disruptions.