Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a roughly 40% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next Prime Minister after the 2026 election, reflecting his enduring advantages but significant legal and coalition vulnerabilities that make his return uncertain.
Analysis
As of late May 2026 the most robust baseline is Netanyahu’s structural advantage: he remains a dominant figure in Likud with a highly organized party apparatus, deep voter base, and decades of coalition-building experience; these factors give him a realistic path to being the largest single party and a credible candidate for assembling a coalition. The market-implied probability (~35.5% Yes) signals substantial skepticism about his ability to convert plurality into a governing majority, which is appropriate given the fragmented multiparty system and the need to secure dependable partners to reach 61+ Knesset seats.
Legal and reputational dynamics are a central, independent axis of uncertainty: ongoing or unresolved legal cases, appeals, or any new judicial developments could materially erode swing support, complicate coalition negotiations, and potentially create formal obstacles to being sworn in depending on court rulings and political-legal compromises; conversely, acquittal or procedural delays could blunt those risks and improve his prospects. Public fatigue from long incumbency, protest movements, and media narratives about corruption can depress turnout among potential Netanyahu voters while galvanizing opposition turnout, so the net effect depends on mobilization and campaign dynamics between now and election day.
Coalition arithmetic and post-election bargaining will likely decide the outcome more than raw vote share; Netanyahu’s path requires reliable partners among religious and right-wing parties or moderation of fringe partners to attract centrist support, while an effective anti-Netanyahu coalition could combine centrist and right-leaning blocs to block him even if Likud is the largest party. External shocks—major security incidents, a successful policy headline, or an economic swing—could shift public sentiment quickly; historically such events can produce sizable polling swings late in the campaign, making the final probability sensitive to developments in the months ahead.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu’s entrenched party machine and name recognition give Likud a persistent baseline vote that often makes it the largest party.
- His extensive experience forming coalitions and negotiating can increase the probability that he secures the necessary partners to reach 61+ seats.
- If a security crisis occurs that is perceived as managed effectively, a rally-around-the-flag effect would likely boost incumbent support.
- Legal delays or acquittals could neutralize a major vulnerability and improve his appeal to undecided voters and potential kingmakers.
Against
- Ongoing legal issues and public perceptions of corruption significantly reduce crossover and centrist support and complicate coalition formation.
- Fragmentation of the Knesset and the need for many small-party partners raises the chance that other blocs can form a majority without him.
- Long incumbency and voter fatigue can depress his vote share relative to opposition surges in a polarized electorate.
- Key potential partners may refuse to join a Netanyahu-led coalition for ideological or strategic reasons, blocking his path to a majority.
Key drivers
- Likud’s share of the vote and whether it emerges as the largest party in the Knesset.
- Performance and seat totals of potential coalition partners, especially religious and far-right parties.
- Outcomes and timing of any legal rulings, convictions, or appeals affecting Netanyahu’s eligibility or political standing.
- Turnout dynamics among Netanyahu’s base versus opposition mobilization.
- Any major security events or defense performance narratives in the run-up to the election.
Risk factors
- A final conviction or disqualifying legal ruling that prevents Netanyahu from being sworn in or erodes coalition partners’ willingness to join him.
- A unified or strategically coordinated anti-Netanyahu bloc that secures a working majority even if Likud wins the largest share of seats.
- A high-opposition turnout driven by protest movements or last-minute scandals reducing Likud’s effective seats.
- A major security failure that undermines incumbent credibility and accelerates defections among right-leaning partners.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu’s legal situations are delayed or resolved favorably, Likud wins the largest share of seats, right-wing and religious parties coalesce around him, and a credible coalition of 61+ seats is formed quickly so he is sworn in as Prime Minister.
Most likely
Likud remains highly competitive and Netanyahu secures a plurality but fails to lock in sufficient reliable partners, leading to months of negotiations that ultimately result in a non-Netanyahu coalition leader being sworn in after the election.
Worst case
A final adverse legal ruling or conviction, combined with a well-coordinated anti-Netanyahu coalition and strong opposition turnout, prevents him from commanding a majority and results in another leader being sworn in as Prime Minister.
More from this day
- politicsPolymarket-
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
AI65%MKT16%Edge+49Hidden GemGiven the short timeline but strong market conviction and clear U.S. incentives to avoid a lapse, I assess a modestly higher-than-even chance that the U.S. will publicly announce a qualifying extension or successor agreement by May 26.
- sportsPolymarketEnded
Where will George Pickens play in 2026-27?
AI35%MKT69%Edge-34HypedGiven Pickens' expected free agency status in 2026 and Atlanta's plausible need for outside receiving talent, I assess a below-market but meaningful probability that he signs with the Falcons for 2026-27, weighing competition from other suitors and the possibility the Steelers re-sign him or he signs elsewhere.
- politicsPolymarket2y
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
AI25%MKT3%Edge+22Hidden GemI assess a roughly one-in-four chance that Donald Trump will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, meaning Yes is unlikely but plausible if several favorable conditions align for him.