Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 1, 2026?
Leaning No: the freshest polling cluster sits mostly below 38.7%, and the RCP average likely tracks that range. The market’s 55% Yes price looks a bit high unless late polls lift the average above the threshold.
Analysis
Oct. 31 polling shows Trump mostly in the 31%–37% range, with one 40% outlier. That leaves the RCP average likely below the 38.7% cutoff at the Nov. 1 resolution time.
The main uncertainty is the exact RCP number, since the available reports are individual polls and other aggregators, not the live RCP average itself. Still, the balance of fresh evidence leans under the threshold more often than over it.
Arguments
For
- Multiple late polls are clearly below 38.7%.
- Independent averages also sit near 37%, not above threshold.
Against
- One strong poll shows 40% approval.
- RCP methodology and update timing could lift the average briefly.
Key drivers
- Fresh polls cluster at 31%–37% approval
- One cited poll reaches 40%, keeping Yes alive
Risk factors
- RCP could weight or include higher late polls
- The exact 1:00 PM ET average is not directly reported
Scenarios
Best case
If RCP updates above 38.7% before 1:00 PM ET, Yes rises to about 58%.
Most likely
Most likely the average stays below 38.7%, with Yes around 47%.
Worst case
If late polling keeps the average near 37%, Yes falls to about 35%.
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