BTC price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Leaning No: Bitcoin is still above the line, but recent selling pressure and ETF outflows weaken the cushion. The market’s 64% Yes price looks a bit high versus the latest flow data.
Analysis
Oct. 31 data show Bitcoin around $77,365, but with softer volume and a low already below $76,500. That leaves only a modest cushion above the resolution line.
The bigger drag is October 30’s $643 million ETF outflow, plus recent negative performance. Market pricing still favors Yes, but the latest flows point slightly against it.
Arguments
For
- Spot price is still above the threshold as of Oct. 31.
- Prediction markets and liquid pricing still favor Yes.
Against
- ETF outflows and weaker volume suggest fragile support.
- Recent intraday lows already dipped below the key level.
Key drivers
- Bitcoin sits only modestly above the $76,500 resolution level.
- Large ETF outflows signal weaker near-term demand.
Risk factors
- A quick rebound above $78,000 would strengthen the Yes case.
- High weekend volatility could easily flip the 60-second average.
Scenarios
Best case
If Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $78,000 before Nov. 6, Yes rises to about 67%.
Most likely
Most likely Bitcoin stays range-bound near the threshold, with Yes around 59%.
Worst case
If selling pushes Bitcoin below $76,500 before Nov. 6, Yes falls to about 43%.
More from this day
- SportsKalshi2d
Chicago vs Seattle: Touchdowns
AI49%MKT21%Edge+28UndervaluedNo edge: Wilson has recent goal-line production, but Seattle’s backfield could split his touches. The 48% price already reflects that mixed setup.
- CryptoKalshiEnded
BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 5pm EST?
AI46%MKT67%Edge-21OvervaluedSlight lean to No: Bitcoin sits close to the threshold, but recent ETF outflows and exchange-stress selling add downside risk. That keeps Yes a bit below the 48% market price.
- economyPolymarket2mo
What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?
AI51%MKT65%Edge-14OvervaluedSlight lean to No: the freshest local price data still sits below the $1,115,000 cutoff, with Los Angeles Metro existing single-family median at $847,030 in Q3 2026 and the metro’s median existing-home price at $958,500.