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25 of 25 edges shown
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Leaning Yes: Democrats look a bit better than the 69% market price because the latest polls show real pickup chances in Maine, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, while Michigan is trending their way too. The biggest hinge is whether they can hold Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire and still flip four Republican seats.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Leaning Yes: Democrats still look likely to take the House, with Cook moving 19 races toward them on October 30 and major models around 80% to 85% for control. The big generic-ballot lead and the need for only a small net gain make the Democratic path stronger than the market price alone suggests.
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Leaning Yes: the late October polling and rating shifts point to Democrats being favored for the House and fully live in the Senate. The biggest reason is Inside Elections’ October 29 move toward Democrats in 63 of 64 changes, including multiple Senate races and a broad House shift.
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