K 29 · P 26 · 55 edges
Batches vary in size: only markets that clear the edge threshold are published.
55 of 55 edges shown
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Leaning No: House indicators favor Democrats, but the Senate path is still highly uncertain. That makes a full Democratic sweep less likely than the 63% market price suggests.
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Leaning Yes: the latest October 28 polling gives Democrats plausible wins in several needed battlegrounds, especially Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas. They still need four gains, but the map is broad enough that control is more likely than the current seat count suggests.
Texas Senate winner?
Slight lean to Yes: the freshest polls keep Talarico slightly ahead, but the market already reflects a tight Texas race. The edge is small because several surveys remain within error and Republicans still have structural advantages.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Leaning Yes: Democrats still look most likely to control the House, and the strongest signal is the late-October generic ballot, which shows them ahead by about 8 to 10 points. The latest House model also points to a Democratic majority, with a central estimate of 229 seats.
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Slight lean to Yes: Democrats are still favored to sweep, with House polling and ratings clearly blue and Senate control now looking roughly in line with a modest Democratic edge. The main reason is that the House path looks strong while the Senate only needs a few close races to break right on November 3, 2026.
Who will control the Senate?
Slight lean to Yes: late polling gives Democrats credible paths in several toss-up races, but Republicans still retain the structural edge. The market at 66% already captures most of that, so the move is small.
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