US recession by end of 2026?

Leaning Yes: the latest Oct. 27, 2026 results reportedly show multiple coding models above 1580, including one at 1809 and another at 1677. That makes the threshold look already cleared, even though the exact resolution table still matters.

Leaning No: Cheniere has no official S&P 500 addition announcement as of October 28, 2026, and the September and October index changes did not include LNG.

Leaning No: Democrats look favored to win the House, but current forecasts cluster in the 230s to low 240s, not above 249. The market’s 18% Yes price looks high versus the available seat projections.