Edges for Oct 25, 2026

The economy still looks more likely to miss the soft-landing definition because unemployment is comfortably below 5.0% but inflation is already above the 3.5% cutoff. For Yes to resolve, inflation must fall meaningfully by the December 2026 CPI reading, and that looks possible but not the base case.

Likud remains a serious contender to finish first, but Israel’s fragmented party system and the volatility of the final campaign make the outcome far from secure. I would price Likud at a modest minority chance to win the most seats, slightly above the market but still well below even odds.

XTEN has a credible launch narrative and a meaningful base of product scale, but the current information still points to a difficult path to sustaining more than a $500 million FDV one day after launch. The market’s low Yes price looks reasonable because the tokenomics, launch mechanics, and initial float are still unknown and could easily cap the first-day valuation below the threshold.