Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

NVIDIA is currently the largest company and would need to lose enough ground to fall behind Apple by the October 31 close. That is possible, but the short remaining window and NVIDIA’s still-strong AI-driven valuation make it more likely to remain first than drop to second.

I think the Yes outcome is more likely than not, but the current price looks a bit rich because the launch itself is uncertain and the no-tools benchmark estimates sit close to the cutoff rather than comfortably above it. My estimate is 72% for a debut at 55% or higher.

I think the market is underpricing recession risk somewhat, but the contract’s resolution rules make a year-end Yes still relatively unlikely. The most plausible path is a softening economy that does not quite produce two consecutive negative GDP quarters or an NBER announcement by the Q4 advance estimate.