Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 24, 2026?
The exact 38.8% outcome remains the dominant market view, but nearby RCP readings show the average has been drifting within a narrow band. I would trim the Yes probability slightly below the market because 38.8% looks live, not locked.
Analysis
The market’s main signal is straightforward: 38.8% is still the modal outcome, with the highest listed probability by far. Recent RCP readings near 38.8% support that exact value remaining plausible at the resolution timestamp.
The main risk is drift, not a dramatic move. Reports of 38.6% and 38.4% show the average has been sliding within a narrow range, so the exact timestamp and rounding could easily land on a nearby number instead of 38.8%.
Arguments
For
- 38.8% was the latest clearly cited RCP reading.
- The outcome cluster remains tightly centered near 38.8%.
Against
- Later reports already showed 38.6% and 38.4%.
- Exact-timestamp resolution makes small late changes decisive.
Key drivers
- Recent RCP readings centered on 38.8%
- Small adjacent moves could change the exact resolved value
Risk factors
- Another poll could pull the average to 38.7% or 38.6%
- Different displayed calculations or rounding may alter the exact print
Scenarios
Best case
RCP still shows 38.8% exactly at 1:00 PM ET.
Most likely
The average stays near 38.8%, with small rounding risk on the final print.
Worst case
A late update pushes the displayed average to 38.7% or 38.6%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% | 84% | 85% |
| 38.7% | 5% | 6% |
| 38.9% | 4% | 3% |
| Below 38.4% | 3% | 2% |
| 38.4% | 4% | 2% |
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