Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 20, 2026?
The market’s 28% Yes price is reasonable because the series has hovered right around 38.8%. Still, the most recent clearly documented update is 38.7%, so exact 38.8% is a bit less likely than the market implies.
Analysis
Trump’s RCP approval average is hovering right on the threshold, with recent reported values around 38.7% to 38.8%. That makes the exact one-decimal resolution highly sensitive to RCP’s update timing and rounding.
The strongest concrete signal is the latest clearly documented RCP reading at 38.7%, while an earlier Oct. 15 report showed 38.8%. Recent weaker polls point slightly lower, so exact 38.8% is possible but a bit less likely than the market price suggests.
Arguments
For
- An Oct. 15 report already showed 38.8% approval.
- Nearby polling, including a 39% NBC result, supports a threshold hit.
Against
- The latest documented RCP update is 38.7%, not 38.8%.
- Several recent polls are materially weaker than the threshold.
Key drivers
- RCP has recently printed both 38.7% and 38.8%.
- Exact one-decimal resolution is very sensitive to timing and rounding.
Risk factors
- A new low poll could push the average below 38.8%.
- A fresh update could hold or round back up to 38.8%.
Scenarios
Best case
RCP updates to exactly 38.8% at 1:00 PM ET and resolves Yes.
Most likely
RCP remains very close but misses the exact 38.8% threshold.
Worst case
The average sits at 38.7% or lower at the cutoff and resolves No.
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