"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?
I think the film is more likely than not to finish above $150 million domestically by October 31, so the under-150 outcome looks less likely. The current total is already high enough that only a moderate amount of additional play is needed, and the strong reception plus large theater count make that achievable.
Analysis
As of October 8, Resident Evil has already reached about $130.18 million domestically, which leaves roughly $19.8 million needed to get past the $150 million threshold by October 31. That is not an especially large amount for a film still playing in more than 3,000 theaters, especially one that opened very strongly and is still showing decent daily holds this late into release. The key question is less whether the movie can keep earning and more whether the pace of those earnings slows enough over the rest of October to leave it short of $150 million. Right now, the box office trajectory does not suggest an immediate collapse; it suggests a film that is still extracting meaningful revenue each day and weekend.
The arguments for the under-150 outcome mostly come from calendar pressure. There are only 23 days left in the month, and movie grosses usually fade materially after the first few weeks, even for well-received titles. If Resident Evil’s daily averages slide quickly after the fourth weekend, it could spend much of late October earning under a million dollars per day and then drift down faster once competition builds or theaters reduce showtimes. In that scenario, it is possible for the remaining run to total only the high teens, which would leave the film just below the target. The market’s current pricing also reflects a belief that a meaningful slowdown is possible, since the no side is favored.
The arguments against the under-150 outcome are stronger on the raw math and current momentum. The film reportedly opened around $60 million, has very strong audience and critic reception, and had already crossed $130 million after just 21 days, which implies unusually good legs for a horror release. A title with that kind of reception and broad theater footprint can keep adding several million dollars per weekend plus weekday padding, and it does not need to perform spectacularly from here to clear $150 million. If the fourth weekend stays healthy and the film remains in wide release through the end of the month, surpassing the threshold becomes quite plausible. The main reason I still lean against the under is that the remaining cushion is small enough that even a fairly normal late-run decline could still get it over the line.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The movie is already at $130.18 million, so the remaining gap is small relative to its current total.
- Arguments for Yes: Strong reviews and broad release support suggest it can keep earning enough to finish above $150 million.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Box office momentum often cools sharply after the third or fourth weekend, especially for genre films.
- Arguments against Yes: If exhibitors trim screens quickly, the daily run rate could fall below what is needed to add nearly $20 million.
Key drivers
- Resident Evil only needs about $19.8 million more to pass $150 million, which is reachable with a modest late-month run.
- The film’s strong audience reception and large theater count support continued box office accumulation through October.
- Late-run weekday declines and theater reductions could still slow the pace enough to keep the total under the threshold.
Risk factors
- If the fourth and fifth weekends fall off faster than expected, the movie may not generate enough incremental gross.
- A quick reduction in showtimes or theater count could sharply cut weekday revenue before October 31.
Scenarios
Best case
The film continues to hold well through late October, adds strong fourth and fifth weekends, and ends comfortably above $150 million by October 31.
Most likely
Resident Evil continues to earn steadily but not spectacularly, leaving the final total near the threshold, with the more probable outcome being a finish above $150 million rather than below it.
Worst case
The film’s daily grosses fall off quickly after the fourth weekend, theater count contracts, and it finishes below $150 million.
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