Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 10, 2026?
I think 37.8% is still the single most likely outcome, but not nearly as likely as the market implies. The exact value depends on a very narrow set of updates and rounding effects, so I put it meaningfully below the quoted price.
Analysis
The core question is not whether Trump’s approval is weak, but whether the RCP average lands on one exact one-decimal print on a specific date. Recent readings in the high-30s create a plausible anchor around 37.8, yet the latest cited data also show meaningful day-to-day movement, which makes the exact figure sensitive to the timing and mix of newly added polls. In that kind of environment, the center of mass may sit near 37.8, but the probability should be spread across adjacent values rather than concentrated almost entirely on one tick.
The recent polling backdrop is mixed in a way that actually helps the 37.8 case while also limiting confidence in it. Several individual surveys have been softer than the aggregate, which supports continued downward pressure on the average, but the RCP figure itself is slower-moving and often buffered by older polls still in the sample. That means a drop from the low 38s into the 37.7 to 37.9 band is quite plausible, with 37.8 emerging as a natural rounding outcome if the average settles between those neighboring prints.
Compared with the current market, I think the pricing is too concentrated on the exact 37.8 result. A market price near 89% for one specific one-decimal point seems to overstate how deterministic the final reading is, especially when nearby outcomes such as 37.7, 37.9, or even above 37.9 remain quite live depending on poll timing. My view is that the market is probably right that 37.8 is the modal outcome, but wrong to treat it as close to a certainty; the more realistic probability is closer to the mid-40s.
Arguments
For
- Recent headline polling has trended weak enough that a move into the 37.8 neighborhood is quite plausible.
- RCP averages often exhibit rounding stickiness, making one-decimal endpoints like 37.8 natural endpoints for a narrow band of underlying values.
Against
- The exact result is fragile, because a tiny shift of a tenth either way changes the outcome entirely.
- The market may be correctly identifying 37.8 as the most likely print, but the current price appears to understate the chance of adjacent outcomes.
Key drivers
- RCP averages move slowly, so recent sub-38 polling makes 37.8 a credible landing point.
- Exact one-decimal outcomes depend heavily on the timing of poll additions, removals, and rounding.
Risk factors
- A late high-quality poll could push the average above 37.9 and knock out the exact 37.8 print.
- A sharper-than-expected decline from weak individual surveys could pull the average to 37.7 or 37.6 instead.
Scenarios
Best case
Late polling nudges the average just enough to settle cleanly at 37.8, with surrounding outcomes failing to overtake it.
Most likely
Trump’s RCP approval average lands somewhere in the high-37s, with 37.8 as the single best point estimate but not overwhelmingly more likely than nearby neighboring values.
Worst case
The average slips to 37.7 or below, or rebounds above 37.9, making the exact 37.8 print miss by a narrow margin.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 37.8% | 45% | 89% |
| Above 37.9% | 20% | 8% |
| 37.7% | 18% | 3% |
| 37.9% | 9% | 3% |
| 37.6% | 8% | 2% |
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