Chicago vs Green Bay: Touchdowns
Roschon Johnson has a real path to a touchdown through expanded backfield work and Chicago’s red-zone rushing usage, but he remains a volatile low-volume bet. I make his chance of scoring at least one touchdown at 22%, modestly above the market.
Analysis
Johnson’s case rests almost entirely on opportunity rather than standalone efficiency. He has done very little offensively so far this season, but Chicago is entering this game with meaningful backfield uncertainty: Monangai is out, Swift has been managing injury concerns, and Johnson appears positioned to absorb more of the secondary and possibly some short-yardage work. That matters because touchdown props for backup runners are often driven by a narrow path to a goal-line carry or an injury-related snap spike rather than full-game volume. His prior history of converting limited touches into touchdowns also suggests Chicago is willing to use him near the stripe when the script fits.
The matchup is also not prohibitive. Green Bay’s run defense has shown leakage against quality backs, and Chicago is a slight favorite in a game with a respectable total, which supports a few red-zone trips. If Swift is limited or unavailable for any stretch, Johnson’s probability rises quickly because the touchdown market is highly sensitive to goal-line role. Even with limited snaps, a player can cash this bet on one designed run, and Johnson’s profile is exactly the kind that can sneak into scoring equity without heavy usage.
Against that, the most important fact remains that Johnson is still a secondary option with low weekly volume and no touchdowns yet this season. Chicago’s backfield has not consistently fed him, and the recent snap share suggests he is still not a featured part of the offense. The market at 17% is not obviously wrong, but I think it slightly underestimates the combination of injury-driven role expansion and the possibility of short-yardage work in a competitive, moderately high-total game. My number is only modestly higher than the market because the range of outcomes is still wide and the touchdown dependency is extreme.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Injury uncertainty ahead of him could push Johnson into a larger share of short-yardage and red-zone work.
- Arguments for Yes: Green Bay has shown vulnerability against the run, which increases the chance of a Chicago rushing touchdown distribution that includes Johnson.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Johnson has had minimal season usage and no touchdowns so far, which signals limited baseline scoring equity.
- Arguments against Yes: Even if his snap count rises, Chicago may still concentrate the highest-value carries with Swift or another back.
Key drivers
- Monangai’s absence and Swift’s injury concerns increase the chance Johnson sees more meaningful snaps.
- Chicago’s modestly favorable game environment creates a better-than-usual path to red-zone rushing opportunities.
Risk factors
- Johnson can easily remain a low-volume backup if Swift plays near normal and the offense leans elsewhere.
- Touchdown props for reserve running backs are inherently fragile because one missed goal-line carry can decide the outcome.
Scenarios
Best case
Swift is limited or exits early, Johnson inherits the primary complementary and goal-line role, and Chicago gets multiple red-zone rushing chances, giving him a realistic shot to score once.
Most likely
Johnson sees a slightly expanded but still secondary workload, with his touchdown chances hinging on one opportunistic red-zone carry rather than sustained volume.
Worst case
Swift plays normally, Johnson stays in a small rotational role, and Chicago’s touchdowns come through other runners or the passing game.
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