Edges for Oct 1, 2026
K 16 · P 28 · 44 edges
Batches vary in size: only markets that clear the edge threshold are published.
44 of 44 edges shown
- pop culturePolymarket30d
"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?
AI86%MKT31%Edge+55Hidden GemResident Evil is already in the low-$100M range domestically, so the movie would need an unusually strong late-run performance to finish at or above $150M by October 31. Given the likely post-opening decay and the limited remaining time, I think the under-150M outcome is highly likely.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
AI96%MKT52%Edge+44Hidden GemTrump appears to have already publicly insulted Tucker Carlson before the September 30 cutoff, so the Yes outcome is very likely. The recent Iran-related clash and multiple reports of Trump calling Carlson “stupid” or otherwise attacking him make this market close to effectively decided.
- techPolymarketToday
Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?
AI28%MKT4%Edge+24Hidden GemA release by October 1 is possible, but the evidence still points more strongly to a later launch window. I would put the chance of Yes slightly below the current market price because Google has signaled urgency without giving any date.
- Science and TechnologyKalshi3mo
Best AI at the end of 2026?
AI43%MKT58%Edge-15HypedClaude is still the most likely single winner, but the lead looks much thinner than the market implies. Google and OpenAI both have enough runway and release momentum to make this closer to a three-way contest than a near-lock for Anthropic.
- SportsKalshi5d
TEN Titans vs BAL Ravens: Total Points
AI81%MKT74%Edge+7UndervaluedI make the over 34.5 points a strong favorite, with an independent probability around 81%. The threshold is far enough below the consensus game total that only a genuinely depressed scoring environment should beat it.
- SportsKalshi11d
Lehecka vs Bergs
AI88%MKT83%Edge+5UndervaluedLehecka is the clear favorite and already has the strongest live signal by leading a set to love in practical terms, with pre-match indicators also pointing his way. I make him a modestly higher chance than the market implies, though the gap is not huge because suspended tennis matches can still swing on restart.
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- ElectionsKalshi#4
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
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Pro - techPolymarket#4
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Pro - EconomicsKalshi#5
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#5
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
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Pro - ElectionsKalshi#6
Which party will win the U.S. House?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#6
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
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Pro - SportsKalshi#7
Starodubtseva vs Charaeva
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Pro - electionsPolymarket#7
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#8
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship End of Round 1 Leader
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Pro - electionsPolymarket#8
Texas Senate Election Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#9
Nishikori vs Tiafoe
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#9
Will Loopscale launch a token by ___?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#10
Van de Zandschulp vs Cerundolo
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#11
Kakenova vs Son
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Pro - techPolymarket#11
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#12
Yang vs Jiang
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Pro - techPolymarket#12
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Text Arena Debut?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#13
Japan vs Ecuador
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#13
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#14
India vs Sri Lanka
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#14
Will Nansen launch a token by ___?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#15
Wales vs Norway
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Pro - economyPolymarket#15
Largest Company end of December 2026?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#16
PIT Steelers vs CLE Browns
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#16
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#17
MLB World Series Champion 2026
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Pro - techPolymarket#18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
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Pro - electionsPolymarket#19
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#20
What will Trump say during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#21
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
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Pro - electionsPolymarket#23
Bulgaria Presidential Election
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#24
"Verity" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
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Pro - techPolymarket#25
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#26
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#27
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#29
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
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Pro - techPolymarket#30
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
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