#1 Box Office This Weekend?

The core of this market is the domestic opening weekend comparison, and the current tracking picture gives Avengers: Endgame Encore a legitimate edge without making it a lock. The reported domestic range of roughly 25 million to 28 million puts it slightly ahead of the Resident Evil reboot’s roughly 24 million to 26 million range, but the overlap is substantial enough that small differences in walk-up sales, premium-format performance, and final Friday-to-Sunday holds could flip the outcome. That makes Yes the more likely result, but not by a huge margin.

There are several reasons to respect the film’s chances. A re-release built around a major franchise anniversary or nostalgia event can outperform ordinary repertory bookings, especially when it includes added-value content like an exclusive look at an upcoming Avengers title. Strong advance sales in India and mentions of interest in China and other overseas markets reinforce the idea that the brand still has unusual momentum, even if those international signals do not directly determine this domestic market. Still, the domestic box office race depends heavily on whether casual fans treat this as a must-see event or merely a curiosity.

The main reason to hold back from a very high Yes probability is that the market is not asking whether the film does well, but whether it finishes first. That distinction matters because a competitor with a similar opening range can win if it slightly overperforms, and the history of box office tracking shows that pre-release estimates can shift meaningfully once final presales, exhibitor response, and audience reception are known. The market price already reflects confidence, so the remaining edge for Yes is mostly the modest advantage of being viewed as the front-runner rather than a dominant favorite.