When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?

The core question is not whether the leaders want contact in principle, but whether all three sides can overcome the practical and political barriers to appearing together in one room before the deadline. Trump is leaving the option open, Zelenskyy is actively pushing for a trilateral format, and that alone gives the event more life than a typical speculative summit rumor. Still, the Kremlin’s insistence on prior lower-level talks is a serious constraint, because it means the most important party to the meeting is not yet prepared to accept the format that would satisfy the market question.

The main reason to assign any meaningful probability is that diplomatic surprises do happen when leaders see strategic value in a public breakthrough. If Trump wants a visible negotiating win, and if pressure builds around a conflict-management process, a side meeting at a larger event such as the G20 remains the most plausible route. That said, the fact pattern here is still far from an operational summit: no schedule, no agreed venue, no confirmed sequencing, and persistent Russian resistance to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter.

Relative to the current market price, the market looks directionally right on No, though perhaps a bit too extreme. A 6% Yes price assumes this is essentially a long shot, and that is defensible given the lack of planning and the Kremlin’s stance. My estimate is somewhat higher because geopolitical negotiations can accelerate quickly if the political incentives line up, but I still see this as a low-probability event rather than a likely outcome.