Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

The strongest argument for Yes is that both leaders are now publicly leaving the door open, and that matters because prior conflicts often turn on whether the principals are willing, at least rhetorically, to authorize direct contact. Zelenskyy has gone further than before by saying he is ready to meet at any time if it advances peace, and he has also floated a December trilateral with Trump and Putin, which could create a diplomatic pathway that did not exist earlier. If outside pressure intensifies and a high-level summit is seen as useful leverage, a direct encounter could be pulled together quickly despite the obvious political difficulties.

The stronger argument is still against Yes. The Kremlin continues to frame a summit as premature, insists on expert-level preparation first, and has not moved toward any concrete bilateral arrangement. Venue remains a major obstacle because Kyiv rejects Moscow as a site, while Moscow appears to prefer exactly that kind of symbolic leverage; without a mutually acceptable location and security guarantees, public openness is usually just signaling. The fact that there is still no announced date, no agreed format, and no sign of substantive negotiating progress is a meaningful negative, especially with less than four months left in the year.

Compared with the market, 10% for Yes looks somewhat too low if the question is interpreted literally and includes any direct meeting, because even a small chance of a last-minute leaders’ encounter or a Trump-facilitated trilateral is higher than a near-certainty of no contact. That said, the market is not wildly off: a direct bilateral remains a low-probability event, and the current news flow is mostly about rhetorical openness rather than operational agreement. My read is that the true probability is still modest, but meaningfully above the market’s implied level because diplomatic surprises can happen quickly once leaders begin publicly floating the idea.