Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

The central fact is that the CLARITY Act has not cleared the Senate’s main obstacle. A 49–50 cloture failure is a serious setback because it shows there is not yet enough support even to begin formal floor debate, much less secure final passage and a presidential signature before year-end. Since the market resolves only if the bill is actually passed by both chambers and signed into law in 2026, the failure of the procedural vote sharply compresses the remaining path to Yes.

There is still a nonzero route for the bill to become law. The House has already passed the measure, the Senate Banking Committee has acted, and Senate leaders could try again if they can change a small number of votes. That matters because the margin on the procedural vote was close enough that a modest political shift, a package deal, or pressure from leadership could theoretically revive the bill. However, the calendar is now the dominant constraint: even if another vote were scheduled quickly, the Senate would still need to overcome cloture, hold floor time, reconcile any final differences, and send the bill to the president before December 31.

Market pricing appears broadly consistent with a low-probability outcome, with Yes near 8% and recent external estimates quoted in the teens to low 30s. The current price likely reflects a realistic blend of legislative difficulty and timing risk rather than a belief that the bill is dead. My own view is somewhat higher than the market only because the Senate setback is not a final defeat, but it is still a clear bearish signal. The most plausible path is continued negotiation without enough time or support to finish, which makes No the default outcome.

A few external factors could still move the odds meaningfully. If leadership prioritizes the bill, if industry pressure intensifies, or if there is an unrelated legislative bargain that brings together enough moderates, the probability could rise quickly from a low base. But absent a visible change in whip counts or a scheduled second vote with improved support, the legislative inertia favors failure. In short, this is a live bill, but live does not mean likely, and the remaining hurdle is high enough that a 2026 enactment remains an underdog scenario.